Disclaimer: Before we start this review please keep in mind that this reflects my personal opinions. I am not going to pull punches but you shouldn’t take it too seriously.  Last year I did a three part serious on the AAA draft and got worlds of shit for the things that I said about individual picks. People wrote me emails, wrote John Thornton, left comments – basically the reactions were really over the top considering this is just a game and I was right about 80% of what I said. Anyway, before you get offended please remember this is an opinion piece that is good natured and not intended to be mean spirited. If you are offended, then rest assured that I am deeply sorry and will spending hours beating myself up so it is not necessary for you to send pissed off emails.

And lastly, I love comments and debate but do not send me personal emails about this stuff. I am sure you will disagree with a good bit of what I say and I am also sure I will be wrong about a good bit. But if we are all being honest, I will be right about 80% of the time and it is completely ridiculous to send me pissy personal emails about the 20% I get wrong.  If you want to go on the record about 200+ players please submit the article to Eric, I am sure he will be willing to post it, but until then let’s keep the discussion confined to the comment section.

For me the first round is about minimizing risk. It’s not the time to be going out on a limb and taking risk; as the old adage goes, you can’t win a draft in the first round but you can lose it there.

The first three picks are all completely reasonable. I would personally have taken Pujols first overall, the man is simply an absolute beast, but I can understand the argument for MCab.  I could honestly even see an argument for Bautista but in the end Pujols put up great numbers last season despite have a broken wrist. There are normally concerns when  a player switches leagues but Pujols being possible the best hitter in the history of the game goes a long way to alleviating those worries.

Now, picks 4 and 5 are the only selections in this round that are very questionable. Fielder at 4^th overall is a huge reach. I love the guy but his upside if he stayed in Milwaukee wouldn’t warrant this pick. He is switching leagues and will surely struggle at some point with that change because, well, he isn’t Albert Pujols. And even if he doesn’t struggle we are looking at a guy that is going to hit .285 35+ with 100 BB. That is great production but at 1B it isn’t out of this world.  Sure, the possibility remains that he might have another 50 HR season and if that happened then this pick would be defensible but what are the odds that happens? 15%? 20%? Going this high on a player based on a 20% upside in the first round is a mistake to me.

Matt Kemp at 5^th is another pick that sort of threw me for a loop. He had a tremendous season last year but he also had a 21.5% HR/FB rate, a .380 BABIP and nearly 700 PA.  It was the perfect storm that lead to a career year, but you should never pay for a career year, its fantasy baseball 101. Is Kemp going to be a great player this year? Probably but personally I don’t see him as anywhere near a sure thing, his skill set and approach are questionable and I would not be shocked if he ended the year with Choo like numbers. That being said the most probably line for Kemp is somewhere around .285 30/30 which would make him an elite OFer but would not make him worth the 5^th overall pick in the draft.  I know, I know, he was #1 on ESPN’s joke of a player rater, but the problem with player raters (and why I never use them) is that they do not account for your individual team or your individual league or intangibles like trade value.  And come on, I am not a hard line position scarcity advocate but there are literally 3 times as many OF as any other position, if you are ever going to downgrade a player for his position it is in the outfield.  For this pick to be justified Kemp literally has to repeat a season in which he saw a jump in HR/FB% that has never been sustainable (do the research or see my Votto article from 2010), he has to maintain a BABIP that is extreme even for him and he has to never take a day off – could it happen? Sure, absolutely but it is a 15% scenario and why in the world would you spend a first round pick betting that an OF reaches his 15% scenario?

The rest of the picks were all in line with what could be expected. Personally, I would have let Braun fall farther; I would have taking AGon, Longoria and probably Cano, Votto or HanRam over him.

I have railed against Longoria as an elite player before but this season I think he is set up to take full advantage of his skill set. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ended the season as a top 3 player.

HanRam is a huge question mark because of his injury potential but he Miami has built a solid team and there is every reason to believe they start to win some games this year, winning makes everyone’s attitude better and HanRam should adjust to 3B pretty well. The 3B/SS eligibility and a rebound season would make this one of the best picks of the entire draft. Of course that shoulder and back will decide whether this was a great or a waste, but it was late enough that you can’t pass up the value.

I also love the Tulowitzki pick at 6^th overall. Again, the injury potential is a serious concern but Tulo has proven to be the type of player than can wreak havoc and carry your team for long stretches, I honestly don’t think we have seen the best of him either, at some point he is due for a Matt Kemp season.

Round 2 was pretty much by the book in my opinion. I was glad to see that the Elite leaguers weren’t tricked into taking Ellsbury in the first round and that they held off Reyes until late in the second.

The rest of the round is solid with the exception of Stanton at 21^st overall. I really don’t understand why you are essentially drafting Adam Dunn circa 2010 in the second round. Stanton is a very talented player but there are a ton of question marks in my mind and I just don’t see the upside to this pick. In order for the value to be justified Stanton is going to have to hit 40 HR, steal at least 5 bases and keep his average up above .270 – all of those things are possible but they are the 10% scenario. My basic theory on player values is very simple:  take the safe bet when the cost is high and take the high upside risk when the cost is low. This pick was paying more than full value for a moderately risky option. Why not take Bruce 15 picks later? Just way too early to be justified.

On the podcast I questioned the Kershaw pick, I stand behind that, but perhaps it was overplayed. My main concern with Kershaw is injury because of the intense number of sliders he throws. If healthy all year then he has a chance to be the #1 SP in baseball, but with Halladay, Verlander, Felix, etc still on the board this is about a round early.

One last note, I think anyone worth their salt knew Cargo was going to fall off last season, but here he is again being draft just out of the first round. I do think Cargo will have a bounce back season but that his 2010 numbers are not likely to be repeated consistently in his career. Upton would have been a better pick here as he is more talented and Cargo can’t hold a candle to his raw power potential. This is nitpicking though, and honestly both picks were relatively solid.

Where to start? I suppose the best place is with pick 30. CP is one of the best people on this site and a great guy but this pick was a reach. When we were watching the draft live and saw Castro come off the board that early it was honestly shocking.  Now, looking back over the draft, I think we may have over blown it a little bit. I do think the odds of Castro truly breaking out in terms of power is going to happen someday but I doubt it happens this season. At some point in the future he is going to be capable of some very Derek Jeter like numbers, maybe that happens this year and the pick doesn’t look too bad, but its again a 10% scenario. I traded for him in my long term keeper because I love his upside and potential, especially in a couple of season as he matures, I am not a Castro hater but with players like Lincecum, Felix, Uggla and Bruce going right after the pick it was high. Castro would surely have been there several rounds later.

I am officially off the David Wright bandwagon this year. I have been beating his drum nonstop despite his struggles but this year I have yielded to the doubter’s argument.  The injury last season is scary, the injury this spring is scary, his K rate is downright frightening, the Mets are an absolutely horrible organization that mismanages its players and injuries, his team is horrible, etc. I just don’t think the David Wright pre-2009 is every coming back. He may have a blip Berkman 2011 season here and there but for my money I would rather gamble on the fragile Ryan Zimmerman. Players of Zimmerman’s talent normally have a career year at some point, a year where they stay healthy and everything clicks. I think this year has a could chance of being his season. The Nationals are really starting to improve, with Strasburg starting all year and Werth primed for a modest rebound, there should be some excitement around the team, at least to start the year. I am buying Zimmerman as Longoria Lite this season.

At this point it seems you have to accept that Verlander and Halladay both seem to defy our typical IP fears.  I am willing to begrudgingly get on board with Halladay, as his track record is just undeniable and at this position in the draft he is great value. Verlander on the other hand, I just can’t pay for a guy that has 250+ IP on his arm. The argument can be made that he didn’t have strenuous innings last season but that inning count is so absurd, there is just no way that I can fully sell in.

Lincecum is due a bounce back and I have zero concern about him.

Felix rivals Kershaw for the potential to utterly dominate his opponents. I am all in on him.

Hamilton has so many question marks both on and off the field. He is immensely talented but stories like his very rarely end smoothly and his injury history is starting to rival Rocco Baldelli. That being said, I don’t think this is bad value for him and at this price you can afford to weather a couple of trips to the DL. I am not all in on this pick but it definitely isn’t a bad choice.

Holliday is simply an untouchable player for me. Last year is about what you can except again this year – .285 20-25 HR with 5 SB. He is a safe pick so I can understand taking 20 HR and hoping for a 30 HR resurgence but with players like Cruz, Pence, etc still on the board the upside just isn’t here.

I could argue the order of the first several picks but all the players are at value and each pick can be defended. I think Lawrie and Sandoval are Hail Mary picks when solid picks like Pence, Zobrist and Cruz are still on the board, but if you want them odds are they wouldn’t fall much further. I absolutely love Pence this year and think this is one of the best value picks of the draft to this point. Pence is out of that horrible quagmire that is Houston, in a great ball park and surrounded by some good hitting knowledge. All the intangibles are in place for him to breakout and have a career year. He has been insanely consistent and undervalued throughout his career but I have a feeling that stops this season.

Weaver had an extraordinary season last year but odds are he is going to regress. He should end up around 3.20, 1.15 and about 190 K. Of the two I think Haren is the better pick; he is reliable as it comes and is much safer in my opinion. But neither should have gone here. I would have waited another round on SP and considering the guys still available,  Weaver and Haren were bad picks.  They are very good #2s. and amazing #3s (and yes on one of my teams they would end up as a #3 and that should be your goal as well) but they shouldn’t have been drafted here when Hamels, CC Sabathia, Greinke, Lester, Cain, etc were still on the board. There are so few opportunities to add solid bats to a line up and jumping early on SP (and not even the best one available) is a mistake that can haunt a team.  Year in and out we preach this – don’t take SP early and yet people continue to do it. Oh well, at least they waited to Round 3 to start, that is a positive.

This is going to be hard…..I don’t hate Michael Bourn at #46. I have a history of destroying people for taking speedsters this early but I love anything and everything Atlanta this season. The young core they have is really impressive and the veterans there will all be good stabilizing influences. The team as a whole is just primed for a solid season and Bourn can benefit with plenty of Runs and SB opportunities. Bourns skills have also improved and he isn’t the same guy that was just putrid in 2008. I actually think there is a serious chance that he could even go 8/60. I know, the 8 HR is crazy talk but it’s my out there 10% scenario. The only problem with drafting a speedster is that ANY small nagging injury can completely destroy their value. Now, I personally I would have waited 5 rounds and taken Brett Gardner but I can understand this pick, it’s a risk in terms of injury/value but I am letting it slid this time.

I hate Paul Konerko. That is all.

Alex Gordon was reach. We are talking about a player who is 20/15 with about a .280 BA. That just isn’t special and definitely not worth reaching for here. I understand that in a draft you have less time to think things through and but Gordon shouldn’t even be on the radar until the Round 10 to 12 range.

I hate to beat up on Play Ball but I feel the same about Asdrubal Cabrera. There is absolutely no reason to think he is going to even approach 20 HR this season, let alone repeat last year’s power. He has just average CT rates, chases pitches out of the zone at a 31% clip, has an unimpressive walk rate, has no history of power at all and his HR/FB rate went from 3% to 13%. How many red flags do you need? More? You want more? Okay, 15 of his 25 HR were rated as “just enough” by hittracker, that is an absolutely absurd number. He is poison to me this year.

I the round is pretty straight forward. I think any closer before double digits rounds is too early and wouldn’t have taken Kimbrel with hitters still available.

I really like the Hamels and Sabathia picks. Considering the other SP that were selected prior to this round they look like great values. Both are exceptional and, given health, locks for Top 10 status.

Carlos Santana is the only catcher I have every considered drafting before round 20. His BB and power are so tantalizing that it almost makes you forget about how dangerous drafting a catcher this high can be. (See Santana circa 2010 or Posey circa 2011). I truly consider Santana an absolute elite player so I want kill this pick but McCann went almost 3 rounds later and it’s hard to justify taking a risk on a backstop this early. I won’t kill it but I can’t get behind it either.

Greinke was a great pick there, I know he is a head case but he has top 5 talent and after a season to adjust to a new team he should be very solid. I am all in on him.

ARod was a great pick here as well. If he is healthy enough to play 130 games he will finish as a top 5 3B. Yes, I believe that.  There is no reason he doesn’t have another 30 HR season in his bat, at this point he will have to sacrifice BA for power but in that lineup/stadium I think 30 HR is an easy feat for him. Given health, I am all in on him as well.

My Pick-I had planned on taking Justin Upton here as I figured all the top 1B’s would be gone but to my surprise Joey Votto fell and I snagged him. He is the only player projected- 30-100-100-10-100-300 and I feel there is room for more…The guys OPS goes up when facing RP’s- clutch…

Nice Pick- The first round is pretty arbitrary really, are we actually going to find value here? More than likely we end up disappointed. The 8 year success rate of identifying the top 15 talent is less than %40…Only 3 top 10 picks finished in the top 10 last year…That said Ryan Braun at 7 is pretty sweet…

Head Scratcher- During the podcast it was suggested that Prince Fielder at 4 was questionable, sure he was projected lower, but in defense he would not have been available to Bada Bing later so reaching here isn’t the end of the world…He could lead the ML in HR’s and RBIs as well as providing healthy BB- he did finish at #10 on the player rater last year…For me Robinson Cano is the guy I would have passed on here. Top 2B? Yes indeed. Scarce position? Not so much this year…Add in a lack of SBs and BB and Cano is my head scratcher…

Round: 2
(13) Killer Bees – Carlos Gonzalez LF
(14) 16 Ounce Pounders – Justin Upton RF
(15) Springfield Isotopes – Jacoby Ellsbury CF
(16) Bingo Phanatics – Curtis Granderson CF
** (17) Gashouse Gorillas – Dustin Pedroia 2B
(18) Honey Nut Ichiros – Ian Kinsler 2B
(19) Corporal Punishers – Clayton Kershaw SP
(20) 16 Ounce Pounders – Mark Teixeira 1B
(21) Bada Bing – Giancarlo Stanton RF
(22) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Jose Reyes SS
(23) Honey Nut Ichiros – Andrew McCutchen CF
(24) Play Ball – Adrian Beltre 3B

My Pick- Again a change of plans as Dustin Pedroia fell to me at 17. The plan was to take Andrew McCutchen here. I feel DP will exceed this rank as he contributes to all 6 categories. This pick jammed up my next pick as well…

Nice Pick- Lots of value here as most of these guys could finish top 10 but I’m going with Jacoby Ellsbury. Sure his HR’s could normalize but his SB’s could as well, he stole 70 bags in his previous full season- 70…If he goes 20/50 with the other gains intact, he finishes at the top 5 of the player rater…

Head Scratcher- Again Bada Bing was raked over the coals and I again I will defend- Giancarlo Stanton is the best power speculation in baseball. A lock for 30 HR’s, could hit 50…His 2H xBA and BB% spike show improving eye and the lineup improvements portend RBI upside…For me Curtis Granderson’s low BA, extreme 21% hr/f rate and average/diminishing speed point to regression.

Round: 3
(25) Designated For Assignment – Roy Halladay SP
(26) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Justin Verlander SP
(27) Bingo Phanatics – David Wright 3B
(28) Bada Bing – Ryan Zimmerman 3B
(29) 16 Ounce Pounders – Cliff Lee SP
(30) Corporal Punishers – Starlin Castro SS
(31) 16 Ounce Pounders – Dan Uggla 2B
** (32) Gashouse Gorillas – Tim Lincecum SP
(33) Gentlemen Broncos – Felix Hernandez SP
(34) Bingo Phanatics – Matt Holliday LF
** (35) Gashouse Gorillas – Josh Hamilton LF
(36) Killer Bees – Jay Bruce RF

My Pick(s)- I was hoping for David Wright or Dan Uggla here but took the ace Tim Lincicum. The prevailing strategy is to try to wait as long as possible on starters and in the past I’ve subscribed to that theory. However as the league average SP’s quality rises, so does the inability to capture 10-12 points in the pitching categories with late round SPs…Used to be a 3.40 ERA was good enough to compete- last year Bingo Phanatics had a 2.93 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in the Elite League…This leads me to my most questionable pick. In preparation for the draft I was set to take Ben Zobrist in this round but with Pedrioa coming to me earlier I wanted to look for power and chose Josh Hamilton over Jay Bruce. I based this on a feeling that Hamilton’s off season issue coupled with a contract year could lead to another 2010 type season…Good thing we play with 3 DL spots in Elite…

Nice Pick- Any of the SPs in this round are nice picks for me here…

Head Scratcher- Starlin Castro was questioned here but I can see this one. He finished top 50 last year and at least shows the potential to meet this slot at a very shallow position…For head scratcher I’m going with my own selection as Josh Hamilton is just as likely to disappoint as provide nice value here…

Round: 4
(37) Killer Bees – Pablo Sandoval 3B
(38) Honey Nut Ichiros – Brett Lawrie 3B
(39) Springfield Isotopes – Ben Zobrist 2B
(40) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Hunter Pence RF
(41) Play Ball – Nelson Cruz RF
(42) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Mike Napoli C
(43) Corporal Punishers – Eric Hosmer 1B
(44) 16 Ounce Pounders – Jered Weaver SP
(45) Bada Bing – Dan Haren SP
(46) Bingo Phanatics – Michael Bourn CF
(47) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Brandon Phillips 2B
(48) Designated For Assignment – Paul Konerko 1B

My Pick- I Had no Fourth rounder due to trade that moved me up into the 3rd…

Nice Pick- I’m going with the afore mentioned Ben Zobrist here. Ben was the #27 bat last year and has a touch of power upside as he homered 27 time in 2010…Add in multi position eligiblity and we have a winner.

Head Scratcher- I can’t really fault any of these but if pressed I’ll suggest Brett Lawrie only due to youth and sample size. He hadn’t shown the kind of power he did at other levels so I wonder if he will keep the gains he made at the ML level last year…That said if you want him, this is where he has gone in every draft I’ve participated in so not exactly a reach…

Round: 5
(49) Designated For Assignment – Carlos Santana C
(50) Honey Nut Ichiros – Cole Hamels SP
(51) Bingo Phanatics – CC Sabathia SP
(52) Bada Bing – Elvis Andrus SS
(53) Designated For Assignment – Yovani Gallardo SP
(54) Corporal Punishers – Shin-Soo Choo RF
(55) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Aramis Ramirez 3B
** (56) Gashouse Gorillas – Zack Greinke SP
(57) Play Ball – Alex Gordon LF
(58) Play Ball – Asdrubal Cabrera SS
(59) Play Ball – Alex Rodriguez 3B
(60) Killer Bees – Craig Kimbrel RP

My Pick- I again went pitching as I wanted to base my staff on two aces and Zack Grienke was my target and he landed here. Disasterous luck in the 1H last year masked a return to dominace. I’m betting more of the same and perhaps a top 5 SP rank…

Nice Pick- I’m actually going with Carlos Santana here as I feel his power upside, BB%, and unlucky h% points to a coming career season…Could it be this year? Factor in that he is a multi-eligibility C with the plans to use him at 1B and/or DH and we have a solid choice here.

Head Scratcher- I will take the easy way out here and say Craig Kimbrel as I feel a closer over some of the bats available makes me go hmmm…The next closer off the board was 23 picks later and it was 60 more picks before the top 5 where off the board…Honorable mention- Yovani Gallardo over Grienke, Cain, Lester, Price…

Round: 6
(61) Killer Bees – Jon Lester SP
(62) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Jimmy Rollins SS
(63) Gentlemen Broncos – Stephen Strasburg SP
(64) 16 Ounce Pounders – David Ortiz DH
** (65) Gashouse Gorillas – B.J. Upton CF
(66) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – C.J. Wilson SP
(67) Corporal Punishers – Desmond Jennings LF
(68) Play Ball – Lance Berkman 1B
(69) Bada Bing – Rickie Weeks 2B
(70) Designated For Assignment – David Price SP
(71) Springfield Isotopes – Kevin Youkilis 3B
(72) Play Ball – Carl Crawford LF

My Pick- BJ Upton is underrated in our format as his bb% is above average and his 20/40 ability overshadows the low ct% resulting in below average BA. He finished #33 on our player rater so getting him here is nice…

Nice Pick- I like the gamble on Kevin Youkilis at 71 in this round. Granted he is a health risk, but his projected 4.1 WARP could be huge here. The other Red Sox, Carl Crawford, get an honorable mention here as well…

Head Scratcher- I realize Stephen Strasburg is an amazing talent and could very well finish a top 10 starter, but can he do it under an innings limit? Will he finish ahead of Matt Cain and David Price? Possible with a career type year but not probable IMO…Honorable mention- Desmond Jennings ahead of Shane Victorino and/or Carl Crawford…DJ had huge problems making adjustments as ML pitching exposed his swing down the stretch…

Round: 7
(73) Designated For Assignment – Jayson Werth RF
(74) Springfield Isotopes – Matt Cain SP
(75) Bingo Phanatics – Shane Victorino CF
(76) Bada Bing – James Shields SP
(77) 16 Ounce Pounders – Madison Bumgarner SP
(78) Corporal Punishers – Jason Heyward RF
(79) Honey Nut Ichiros – Brian McCann C
** (80) Gashouse Gorillas – Michael Morse 1B
(81) 16 Ounce Pounders – Chris Young CF
(82) Springfield Isotopes – Freddie Freeman 1B
(83) Springfield Isotopes – Mariano Rivera RP
(84) Killer Bees – Adam Jones CF

My Pick- I really wanted Madison Bumgarner this year and hoped he’d fall but settled on Micheal Morse as the top 1B remaining. H% suggest BA at risk but power is legit making him my choice here. 1B is not as deep as years past…

Nice Pick- I think Madison Bumgarner will contend for the NL CY Young this year. All metrics point up with room for improvement all around. Take away one fluky disaster starthe made last year(5 straight singles through the infield!?!) and his ERA jumps to #6 in the NL…

Head Scratcher- Adam Jones is the choice here. His power seems to be improving but his speed and plate discipline are trending down- he doesn’t take BBs and swung at an astounding 44% of pitches out of the strike zone last year…

Round: 8
(85) Killer Bees – Howard Kendrick 2B
(86) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Jonathan Papelbon RP
(87) Gentlemen Broncos – Michael Young 1B
(88) 16 Ounce Pounders – Brett Gardner LF
(89) Play Ball – Matt Moore SP
(90) Honey Nut Ichiros – Billy Butler DH
(91) Corporal Punishers – Adam Wainwright SP
(92) Honey Nut Ichiros – Ian Kennedy SP
(93) Bada Bing – Joe Mauer C
(94) Bingo Phanatics – Josh Johnson SP
(95) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Ichiro Suzuki RF
(96) Designated For Assignment – J.J. Hardy SS

My Pick- I traded my #89 pick to move up earlier so no pick…I would have taken Joe Mauer or Carlos Beltran…

Nice Pick- I like Joe Mauer this year as a comeback player. To get a potential BA champ with a decent bb% that will not have to catch everyday at #93 is solid. Injury history aside, Mauer was a perenial top 30 pick until this year…

Head Scratcher- I don’t have a dislike here but will go with the ultra-risky Josh Johnson. Although he has shown elite level skill he has only made all his starts once in his career. With Latos, Romero, and DHudson still available, I would have went elsewhere…

Round: 9
(97) Designated For Assignment – Carlos Beltran RF
(98) Gentlemen Broncos – Ubaldo Jimenez SP
(99) Bingo Phanatics – Ricky Romero SP
(100) Bada Bing – Dee Gordon SS
(101) 16 Ounce Pounders – Michael Cuddyer 1B
(102) Corporal Punishers – Yu Darvish SP
** (103) Gashouse Gorillas – Nick Swisher RF
** (104) Gashouse Gorillas – Mark Reynolds 3B
(105) 16 Ounce Pounders – Drew Stubbs CF
(106) Gentlemen Broncos – Alexei Ramirez SS
(107) Springfield Isotopes – Brandon Beachy SP
(108) Killer Bees – John Axford RP

My Pick- I had two pick here and went with two HR/BB types in Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds. I feel Swisher was solid here, especially in our format, while Reynolds was a reach at best. I needed power at 3B and went with MR. 3 outcomes(HR/BB/K)…

Nice Pick- I really like Carlos Beltran this year in STL- solid value at 97…Nick Swisher is a good pick here as well…

Head Scratcher- I’m going with my own pick of Mark Reynolds as he may have been available a lot later…Oh the things we do for power hitters…

Round: 10
(109) Killer Bees – Mat Latos SP
(110) Honey Nut Ichiros – Erick Aybar SS
(111) Play Ball – Corey Hart RF
(112) Play Ball – Matt Garza SP
** (113) Gashouse Gorillas – Jordan Zimmermann SP
(114) Honey Nut Ichiros – Adam Lind 1B
(115) Corporal Punishers – Mike Moustakas 3B
(116) 16 Ounce Pounders – Derek Jeter SS
(117) Bada Bing – Daniel Hudson SP
(118) Bingo Phanatics – Matt Wieters C
(119) Play Ball – Rafael Betancourt RP
(120) Springfield Isotopes – Joel Hanrahan RP

My Pick- Jordan Zimmerman presented my best value option here. I like the strides he made coming back from TJS- velocity and control came all the way back. A K rate spike in the 2H before being shut down portend more growth there as well…

Nice Pick- I like the value Matt Latos offers at 109. I think he puts a solid year together in Cincy despite the more hitter friendly venue. His road ratios 3.68/1.22 show that he wasn’t just a product of Petco…

Head Scratcher- Mike Moustakas was a reach at this point as his ADP of 196 suggests he could have been had later…That said I actually like him this year as a “post-hype” type of player who struggles initially, then figures it out later…

Round: 11
(121) Designated For Assignment – Cameron Maybin CF
(122) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Neil Walker 2B
(123) Bingo Phanatics – Ryan Roberts 2B
(124) Bada Bing – Andre Ethier RF
(125) Honey Nut Ichiros – Brian Wilson RP
(126) Corporal Punishers – Buster Posey C
(127) Honey Nut Ichiros – Jose Valverde RP
** (128) Gashouse Gorillas – Jason Motte RP
(129) Gentlemen Broncos – Drew Storen RP
(130) Designated For Assignment – J.J. Putz RP
(131) Designated For Assignment – Heath Bell RP
(132) Killer Bees – Cory Luebke SP

Round: 12
(133) Killer Bees – Jordan Walden RP
(134) Gentlemen Broncos – Michael Pineda SP
(135) Gentlemen Broncos – Huston Street RP
(136) Play Ball – Jason Kipnis 2B
** (137) Gashouse Gorillas – Emilio Bonifacio SS
(138) Honey Nut Ichiros – Chase Utley 2B
(139) Corporal Punishers – Dustin Ackley 2B
(140) 16 Ounce Pounders – Carlos Pena 1B
(141) Bada Bing – Andrew Bailey RP
(142) Bingo Phanatics – Jhonny Peralta SS
(143) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Logan Morrison LF
(144) Designated For Assignment – Kelly Johnson 2B

Like- Maybin, Ethier, Posey and Pineda- all likely to outperform this spot…

Loathe- Brian Wilson worries me this year. Went down last year with elbow trouble and treated it with rest…Still hasn’t really got it going yet this spring…

Round: 13
(145) Designated For Assignment – Gaby Sanchez 1B
(146) Springfield Isotopes – Colby Rasmus CF
(147) Bingo Phanatics – Carlos Lee 1B
(148) Bada Bing – Brandon League RP
(149) 16 Ounce Pounders – Josh Beckett SP
(150) Corporal Punishers – Ike Davis 1B
(151) Play Ball – Tommy Hanson SP
** (152) Gashouse Gorillas – Jemile Weeks 2B
(153) Bingo Phanatics – Joe Nathan RP
(154) Gentlemen Broncos – Paul Goldschmidt 1B
(155) Springfield Isotopes – Adam Dunn 1B
(156) Killer Bees – Kendrys Morales 1B

Round: 14
(157) Killer Bees – Jesus Montero DH
(158) Springfield Isotopes – Carlos Marmol RP
(159) Springfield Isotopes – Sean Marshall RP
(160) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Kyle Farnsworth RP
** (161) Gashouse Gorillas – Grant Balfour RP
(162) Play Ball – Frank Francisco RP
(163) Corporal Punishers – Chris Sale RP
(164) 16 Ounce Pounders – Matt Capps RP
(165) Bada Bing – Gio Gonzalez SP
(166) Bingo Phanatics – Coco Crisp CF
(167) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Jeremy Hellickson SP
(168) Designated For Assignment – Nick Markakis RF

Like- Davis, Rasmus, Weeks, Hellickson…

Loathe- Tommy Hanson’s mechanics are a mess. If he can learn to pitch with his new delivery he may avoid the DL…

Round: 15
(169) Designated For Assignment – Brandon Morrow SP
(170) Springfield Isotopes – Ryan Howard 1B
(171) Bingo Phanatics – Johan Santana SP
(172) Bada Bing – Sergio Santos RP
(173) 16 Ounce Pounders – Chris Perez RP
(174) Corporal Punishers – Kenley Jansen RP
(175) Honey Nut Ichiros – Anibal Sanchez SP
** (176) Gashouse Gorillas – Jason Kubel RF
(177) Springfield Isotopes – Shaun Marcum SP
(178) Honey Nut Ichiros – Edwin Encarnacion 3B
(179) Springfield Isotopes – Matt Thornton RP
(180) Killer Bees – Max Scherzer SP

Round: 16
(181) Killer Bees – Brett Myers SP
(182) Play Ball – Alex Avila C
(183) Springfield Isotopes – Javy Guerra RP
(184) Play Ball – Miguel Montero C
** (185) Gashouse Gorillas – Yoenis Cespedes CF
(186) Honey Nut Ichiros – Torii Hunter RF
(187) Corporal Punishers – Jim Johnson RP
(188) 16 Ounce Pounders – Danny Espinosa 2B
(189) Bada Bing – Melky Cabrera CF
(190) Bingo Phanatics – Jaime Garcia SP
(191) Play Ball – Jeff Francoeur RF
(192) Designated For Assignment – Tyler Clippard RP

Like- Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are highly unlikely to repeat last years performances…Getting them here means they don’t have to provide value…

Loathe- All good from here on out as we are all looking for upside plays…

Round: 17
(193) Designated For Assignment – Brandon Belt 1B
(194) Springfield Isotopes – Mike Minor SP
(195) Bingo Phanatics – Alex Rios CF
(196) Bada Bing – David Robertson RP
(197) 16 Ounce Pounders – Vinnie Pestano RP
(198) Corporal Punishers – Jonathan Broxton RP
(199) Honey Nut Ichiros – Addison Reed RP
** (200) Gashouse Gorillas – Greg Holland RP
(201) Gentlemen Broncos – Jose Altuve 2B
(202) Gentlemen Broncos – Francisco Cordero RP
(203) Play Ball – Derek Holland SP
(204) Killer Bees – Jonny Venters RP

Round: 18
(205) Killer Bees – Angel Pagan CF
(206) Gentlemen Broncos – Josh Willingham LF
(207) Gentlemen Broncos – Mike Adams RP
(208) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Martin Prado 3B
** (209) Gashouse Gorillas – Justin Morneau 1B
(210) Honey Nut Ichiros – Aroldis Chapman RP
(211) Corporal Punishers – John Mayberry Jr. CF
(212) 16 Ounce Pounders – Sergio Romo RP
(213) Bada Bing – Lucas Duda 1B
(214) Bingo Phanatics – Aaron Hill 2B
(215) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Daniel Bard RP
(216) Designated For Assignment – Mat Gamel 3B

Like- Reed, Pagan, Romo and Duda…

Round: 19
(217) Designated For Assignment – Ryan Raburn 2B
(218) Play Ball – Marco Scutaro SS
(219) Bingo Phanatics – Joaquin Benoit RP
(220) Bada Bing – Scott Downs RP
(221) 16 Ounce Pounders – Chase Headley 3B
(222) Corporal Punishers – Brandon McCarthy SP
(223) Honey Nut Ichiros – Neftali Feliz RP
** (224) Gashouse Gorillas – Fernando Salas RP
(225) Gentlemen Broncos – Yadier Molina C
(226) Gentlemen Broncos – Matt Joyce RF
(227) Play Ball – David Freese 3B
(228) Killer Bees – Denard Span CF

Round: 20
(229) Killer Bees – Jose Tabata LF
(230) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Mark Trumbo 1B
(231) Gentlemen Broncos – Delmon Young LF
(232) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Mitch Moreland 1B
** (233) Gashouse Gorillas – Peter Bourjos CF
(234) Honey Nut Ichiros – Doug Fister SP
(235) Corporal Punishers – Austin Jackson CF
(236) 16 Ounce Pounders – Daniel Murphy 2B
(237) Bada Bing – Brian Fuentes RP
(238) Bingo Phanatics – Dexter Fowler CF
(239) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Hiroki Kuroda SP
(240) Designated For Assignment – Alfonso Soriano LF

Like- Scutaro, Tabata, Bourjos and Kuroda…

Round: 21
(241) Designated For Assignment – Ervin Santana SP
(242) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – David Hernandez RP
(243) Bingo Phanatics – Francisco Rodriguez RP
(244) Bada Bing – Garrett Jones 1B
(245) 16 Ounce Pounders – Kerry Wood RP
(246) Corporal Punishers – Brennan Boesch LF
(247) Honey Nut Ichiros – Stephen Drew SS
** (248) Gashouse Gorillas – Erik Bedard SP
(249) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Wilson Ramos C
(250) Gentlemen Broncos – Justin Masterson SP
(251) Play Ball – Yunel Escobar SS
(252) Killer Bees – Henry Rodriguez RP

Round: 22
(253) Killer Bees – Rafael Soriano RP
(254) Springfield Isotopes – Mark Melancon RP
(255) Gentlemen Broncos – Nyjer Morgan CF
(256) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – J.D. Martinez LF
** (257) Gashouse Gorillas – Geovany Soto C
(258) Honey Nut Ichiros – Zack Cozart SS
(259) Corporal Punishers – Ben Revere CF
(260) 16 Ounce Pounders – Johnny Cueto SP
(261) Bada Bing – Danny Valencia 3B
(262) Bingo Phanatics – Jason Bay LF
(263) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Clay Buchholz SP
(264) Designated For Assignment – Andrew Cashner RP

Like- Boesch, Bedard, Escobar, and Cashner…

Round: 23
(265) Designated For Assignment – Justin Smoak 1B
(266) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Allen Craig LF
(267) Bingo Phanatics – Luke Gregerson RP
(268) Bada Bing – Eric O’Flaherty RP
(269) 16 Ounce Pounders – Edward Mujica RP
(270) Corporal Punishers – Jed Lowrie SS
(271) Honey Nut Ichiros – Mike Carp 1B
** (272) Gashouse Gorillas – Chris Carpenter SP
(273) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Antonio Bastardo RP
(274) Gentlemen Broncos – Alejandro De Aza RF
(275) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Octavio Dotel RP
(276) Killer Bees – Chris Davis 3B

Round: 24
(277) Killer Bees – Aaron Crow RP
(278) Play Ball – Mike Trout CF
(279) Gentlemen Broncos – Colby Lewis SP
(280) Play Ball – Ian Desmond SS
** (281) Gashouse Gorillas – Carlos Quentin RF
(282) Honey Nut Ichiros – Glen Perkins RP
(283) Corporal Punishers – Vernon Wells LF
(284) 16 Ounce Pounders – Ted Lilly SP
(285) Bada Bing – Ryan Doumit C
(286) Bingo Phanatics – Francisco Liriano SP
(287) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Jake Peavy SP
(288) Designated For Assignment – Lorenzo Cain RF

Like- Lowrie, De Aza, Liriano and Cain…

Round: 25
(289) Designated For Assignment – Yonder Alonso LF
(290) RED STRIPED MUSTANG – Bryce Harper RF
(291) Bingo Phanatics – Nick Masset RP
(292) Bada Bing – Tony Sipp RP
(293) 16 Ounce Pounders – Joel Peralta RP
(294) Corporal Punishers – Jesse Crain RP
(295) Honey Nut Ichiros – Rex Brothers RP
** (296) Gashouse Gorillas – Vance Worley SP
(297) Play Ball – Evan Meek RP
(298) Honey Nut Ichiros – Michael Brantley LF
(299) Gentlemen Broncos – James Loney 1B
(300) Killer Bees – Travis Hafner DH

Round: 26
(301) Killer Bees – Mike Aviles 2B
(302) Springfield Isotopes – Sean Rodriguez SS
(303) Gentlemen Broncos – Chad Billingsley SP
(304) Play Ball – Juan Nicasio SP
** (305) Gashouse Gorillas – Alfredo Aceves RP
(306) Play Ball – Jon Rauch RP
(307) Corporal Punishers – Brian Roberts 2B
(308) 16 Ounce Pounders – J.P. Arencibia C
(309) Bada Bing – Brad Lidge RP
(310) Bingo Phanatics – Raul Ibanez LF
(311) Play Ball – Ernesto Frieri RP
(312) Designated For Assignment – Travis Snider LF
Like- Brothers, Aviles, Nicasio and Lidge…

Round: 27
(313) Designated For Assignment – Homer Bailey SP
(314) Springfield Isotopes – Tim Hudson SP
(315) Bingo Phanatics – Fautino De Los Santos RP
(316) Bada Bing – Ryan Dempster SP
(317) 16 Ounce Pounders – Bradley Boxberger RP
(318) Corporal Punishers – Matt Guerrier RP
(319) Honey Nut Ichiros – Tim Collins RP
** (320) Gashouse Gorillas – Alexi Ogando SP
(321) Springfield Isotopes – Alex Presley LF
(322) Gentlemen Broncos – Jason Bourgeois LF
(323) Springfield Isotopes – Will Venable RF
(324) Killer Bees – Scott Baker SP

Round: 28
(325) Killer Bees – Kurt Suzuki C
(326) Gentlemen Broncos – Darren Oliver RP
(327) Gentlemen Broncos – Koji Uehara RP
(328) Springfield Isotopes – Brian Matusz SP
** (329) Gashouse Gorillas – Roy Oswalt SP
(330) Honey Nut Ichiros – Chris Heisey LF
(331) Corporal Punishers – Tim Stauffer SP
(332) Gentlemen Broncos – Jason Bartlett SS
(333) Bada Bing – Juan Rivera 1B
(334) Springfield Isotopes – Jose Arredondo RP
(335) Springfield Isotopes – Tyler Pastornicky SS
(336) Springfield Isotopes – Devin Mesoraco

Like- Boxberger, Ogando, Matusz and Arredondo…

Conclusion, drafting at the Elite level is quite an experience. I came in thinking I’d get one set of players and ended up with a very different group. You have to be flexible and often be able to think quick. If you want someone in the Elite draft you better reach because you won’t be able to sneak anyone by these guys. This makes the Elite Draft the most fun yet challenging FLB experience I’ve ever been a part of- thanks guys!

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Analysis of average draft position has now turned to the all-important sit/start debates and waiver wire pickups.  You can stop talking about whom you drafted where. Don’t even think about it. A player’s draft value means nothing going forward. All that matters now is what that guy does on the field.

I’ll have specific thoughts on trends and players as the season goes on. However, in this installment of Fantasy Musings, I thought it might be appropriate to talk trades.  An astute fantasy player will always be looking to upgrade his or her team whenever and however possible.  Whether that means a waiver wire transaction, a drop of an underperforming bust, or a trade, you should always be looking for any way to get a leg up on your opponents. One of the best ways to do that is to utilize your knowledge and exploit a fellow league mate via a trade.

Before I get going too far though, it is worth noting that not every league treats trades the same. It is vital that you understand your league’s rules because some leagues penalize trading partners by making them pay more into the pot. Others have limits on the amount of trades a player can make each season. Make sure you know these rules before engaging in trade talks.

Assuming you’re good to go, I think a prudent starting point is a short explanation of how most fantasy players treat trades. In my experience, people tend to fall into one of the following five categories: (1) The “Wheeler and Dealer” (2) “Separation Issues Guy” (3) The “Diplomat” (4) “Mr. Insecure” and (5) “The Mark.”  A short description of each follows:

5 Categories of Trading Partners:

(1) The Wheeler and Dealer

This is the guy or gal in your league that has probably already proposed a trade to you.  More than likely, he will propose 400 more trades to you by season’s end.  The vast majority of these trade proposals will be so astronomically one-sided that before long you won’t even bother to open up his emails or answer his calls.  This is the guy that will tell you about how that 1 time out of 1000 he got one of these trades to work, and gosh darnit, he’s going to make it happen again. He’s also probably unemployed.

(2) Separation Issues Guy

This is the guy that no matter how balanced the trade is, or how beneficial a trade will be to his team, he will not budge.  He will more than likely not make many trades, if any, all season long.  This is the guy that will stick with the underperforming second round bust draft pick for no other reason than he was his second round draft pick.  He has separation issues with his drafted team and wants no one else to touch his players but him. More than likely an only child, he’s going to take his ball and go home nearly every time a trade is discussed, even when it makes complete sense for him to make the trade.

(3) The Diplomat

This is the guy that wants nothing more than to make sure that your team is improved by a trade.  He’s the snake oil salesman of the league and also usually knows what he’s doing.  He’ll usually approach you with an “I was thinking…I think I know a way to make both of our teams improved” kind of speech.  He’ll start with a trade that makes no sense whatsoever to your team, but then he’ll start to sweeten the deal for you. He’ll use words like “your team will improve here” and “this makes sense for you.” He’ll probably even use some stats to back up his points. Don’t take his sales pitch lightly though, because it’s all calculated. He has done his homework and he wants your guy for a reason. Beat him at his own game if you can.

(4) Mr. Insecure

This is the guy that will usually open trading talks with good intentions but will then begin to worry about making the wrong decision.  He’ll be the one that will propose a trade to you that actually makes sense.  You’ll agree that it makes sense, and so you’ll tell him that it’s a deal.  You’ll be under the impression you have a deal, but then his insecurity kicks in. He’ll take the fact that you agreed to the deal as a symbol that the deal was patently unfair to him in the first place.  In other words, he’ll become insecure that any trade, even a completely fair trade, usually means he is getting screwed. This is a very tough guy to trade with.

(5) The Mark

This is the guy you want to be trading with. He’s usually pretty laissez-faire when it comes to trades (and fantasy football in general). He might be struggling early on in the season and looking for some new blood to add to his team.  This makes him your mark.  He’s the guy that can be easily swooned by the Diplomat. He’s also the guy that made that idiotic 1 in a 1000 trade.  Your biggest issue with this guy is usually getting a hold of him because he never checks his email or the message board. He’s a fantastic trading partner, so get to him earlier than the next guy.

These personalities are undoubtedly in your leagues. Recognize which personality each of your league mates is and it will help you at the negotiating table.  To close, here are 10 quick pointers to keep in mind when it comes to trading in fantasy football:

(1) Don’t make anyone on your team “untouchable.”  I always hate it when people say this about a player on their team. Nobody is ever untouchable on my teams. Everyone has a price. Some are just steeper than others.

(2) Buy low and sell high.  If a player comes out blazing early on and you think it’s a hoax then sell high. The same goes for when a player struggles out of the gate.  Buy low on that player.  Make sure you’re looking at matchups and schedules to help you determine who is low and high and why.

(3) Look for a void on your trading partner’s team you can fill to make them feel like they are upgrading. It always makes the other player feel better when you upgrade them somewhere and they upgrade you somewhere.

(4) Consider trading 2 for 1 or 3 for 2. I feel like the best trades I’ve ever made have been where I am trading away 2 or 3 guys to get 1 guy.  Often those 2 or 3 guys are parked on my bench with no chance of playing. I can sell “depth” for starting talent.

(5) Remember that some trades just aren’t meant to be. Don’t sell the farm because you fall in love with a guy on someone else’s team.

(6) Recognize your league’s keeper rules, if applicable. Make sure you’re taking into account what players can be kept if traded.

(7) Don’t let one great or terrible performance sway you in a trade proposal early on. This goes back to the buy low/sell high thing.

(8) Look at playoff weeks of the players you are acquiring.  If you are going to the playoffs, see what kind of matchups that player is going to be facing when it counts the most.

(9) Don’t rush to make a decision on a trade.  Do your homework before you accept. Usually the very first proposal is skewed toward the proposer, so take some time to counter-offer and see if the trade will make more sense after some more proposals.

(10) Have fun with trades! That one pointed swap may end up being the difference between mediocrity and championship.

That’s it. Good luck, and happy trading! Until next time, enjoy the REAL football!

Featured image by AJ Guel Photography