Fantasy Football

  • Trade Talks: An Analysis of Trading Personalities

    Trade Talks: An Analysis of Trading Personalities

    Fantasy Football, Fantasy Musings September 6, 2011 3:11 pm 3 comments

    Welcome to Week 1 of the National Football League, friends.

    Analysis of average draft position has now turned to the all-important sit/start debates and waiver wire pickups.  You can stop talking about whom you drafted where. Don’t even think about it. A player’s draft value means nothing going forward. All that matters now is what that guy does on the field.

    I’ll have specific thoughts on trends and players as the season goes on. However, in this installment of Fantasy Musings, I thought it might be appropriate to talk trades.  An astute fantasy player will always be looking to upgrade his or her team whenever and however possible.  Whether that means a waiver wire transaction, a drop of an underperforming bust, or a trade, you should always be looking for any way to get a leg up on your opponents. One of the best ways to do that is to utilize your knowledge and exploit a fellow league mate via a trade.

    Before I get going too far though, it is worth noting that not every league treats trades the same. It is vital that you understand your league’s rules because some leagues penalize trading partners by making them pay more into the pot. Others have limits on the amount of trades a player can make each season. Make sure you know these rules before engaging in trade talks.

    Assuming you’re good to go, I think a prudent starting point is a short explanation of how most fantasy players treat trades. In my experience, people tend to fall into one of the following five categories: (1) The “Wheeler and Dealer” (2) “Separation Issues Guy” (3) The “Diplomat” (4) “Mr. Insecure” and (5) “The Mark.”  A short description of each follows:

     

    5 Categories of Trading Partners:

    (1) The Wheeler and Dealer

    This is the guy or gal in your league that has probably already proposed a trade to you.  More than likely, he will propose 400 more trades to you by season’s end.  The vast majority of these trade proposals will be so astronomically one-sided that before long you won’t even bother to open up his emails or answer his calls.  This is the guy that will tell you about how that 1 time out of 1000 he got one of these trades to work, and gosh darnit, he’s going to make it happen again. He’s also probably unemployed.

    (2) Separation Issues Guy

    This is the guy that no matter how balanced the trade is, or how beneficial a trade will be to his team, he will not budge.  He will more than likely not make many trades, if any, all season long.  This is the guy that will stick with the underperforming second round bust draft pick for no other reason than he was his second round draft pick.  He has separation issues with his drafted team and wants no one else to touch his players but him. More than likely an only child, he’s going to take his ball and go home nearly every time a trade is discussed, even when it makes complete sense for him to make the trade.

    (3) The Diplomat

    This is the guy that wants nothing more than to make sure that your team is improved by a trade.  He’s the snake oil salesman of the league and also usually knows what he’s doing.  He’ll usually approach you with an “I was thinking…I think I know a way to make both of our teams improved” kind of speech.  He’ll start with a trade that makes no sense whatsoever to your team, but then he’ll start to sweeten the deal for you. He’ll use words like “your team will improve here” and “this makes sense for you.” He’ll probably even use some stats to back up his points. Don’t take his sales pitch lightly though, because it’s all calculated. He has done his homework and he wants your guy for a reason. Beat him at his own game if you can.

    (4) Mr. Insecure

    This is the guy that will usually open trading talks with good intentions but will then begin to worry about making the wrong decision.  He’ll be the one that will propose a trade to you that actually makes sense.  You’ll agree that it makes sense, and so you’ll tell him that it’s a deal.  You’ll be under the impression you have a deal, but then his insecurity kicks in. He’ll take the fact that you agreed to the deal as a symbol that the deal was patently unfair to him in the first place.  In other words, he’ll become insecure that any trade, even a completely fair trade, usually means he is getting screwed. This is a very tough guy to trade with.

    (5) The Mark

    This is the guy you want to be trading with. He’s usually pretty laissez-faire when it comes to trades (and fantasy football in general). He might be struggling early on in the season and looking for some new blood to add to his team.  This makes him your mark.  He’s the guy that can be easily swooned by the Diplomat. He’s also the guy that made that idiotic 1 in a 1000 trade.  Your biggest issue with this guy is usually getting a hold of him because he never checks his email or the message board. He’s a fantastic trading partner, so get to him earlier than the next guy.

     

    These personalities are undoubtedly in your leagues. Recognize which personality each of your league mates is and it will help you at the negotiating table.  To close, here are 10 quick pointers to keep in mind when it comes to trading in fantasy football:

    (1) Don’t make anyone on your team “untouchable.”  I always hate it when people say this about a player on their team. Nobody is ever untouchable on my teams. Everyone has a price. Some are just steeper than others.

    (2) Buy low and sell high.  If a player comes out blazing early on and you think it’s a hoax then sell high. The same goes for when a player struggles out of the gate.  Buy low on that player.  Make sure you’re looking at matchups and schedules to help you determine who is low and high and why.

    (3) Look for a void on your trading partner’s team you can fill to make them feel like they are upgrading. It always makes the other player feel better when you upgrade them somewhere and they upgrade you somewhere.

    (4) Consider trading 2 for 1 or 3 for 2. I feel like the best trades I’ve ever made have been where I am trading away 2 or 3 guys to get 1 guy.  Often those 2 or 3 guys are parked on my bench with no chance of playing. I can sell “depth” for starting talent.

    (5) Remember that some trades just aren’t meant to be. Don’t sell the farm because you fall in love with a guy on someone else’s team.

    (6) Recognize your league’s keeper rules, if applicable. Make sure you’re taking into account what players can be kept if traded.

    (7) Don’t let one great or terrible performance sway you in a trade proposal early on. This goes back to the buy low/sell high thing.

    (8) Look at playoff weeks of the players you are acquiring.  If you are going to the playoffs, see what kind of matchups that player is going to be facing when it counts the most.

    (9) Don’t rush to make a decision on a trade.  Do your homework before you accept. Usually the very first proposal is skewed toward the proposer, so take some time to counter-offer and see if the trade will make more sense after some more proposals.

    (10) Have fun with trades! That one pointed swap may end up being the difference between mediocrity and championship.

    That’s it. Good luck, and happy trading! Until next time, enjoy the REAL football!

    Featured image by AJ Guel Photography

     
  • Elite Draft Recap

    Elite Draft Recap

    Fantasy Football September 1, 2011 7:40 pm 7 comments

     

    Ah, yes – another draft recap piece. Every fantasy site out there has several of these kinds of articles up, but this one will be offered in the context of our respective fantasy community’s scoring system and roster parameters. So, perhaps it will benefit you more than the generic, “I’m a fantasy expert because I went to journalism school and no one else in my office even know what fantasy football is” kind of reviews. I am tired of reading the incessant ramblings of some of the self-proclaimed “experts” out there after they draft a team with their expert friends. I am tired of reading about how LeGarrette Blount is a “breakout” candidate. The man racked up 1,000 yards last season – WE’RE AWARE OF HIS ABILITIES.

     

    I am not an expert. I have been playing the fantasy sports games for over 10 years now; I’ve had great teams and terrible teams. I finished 3rd in the Elite Football League last year. I had Arian Foster on my radar last year BEFORE Ben Tate even went down… But I also thought Kevin Smith in Detroit would rack up about 800 yards and 40 receptions last year, so I won’t even pretend that I know everything.

     

    In an effort to do something different with a draft recap article, I’d like to try a pick-by-pick analysis of the first ten rounds instead of just highlighting two picks per round and rushing through some useless babble about how smart I think I am for picking players that have already proven their mettle. From round 11 – on I’ll just pick the best and worst picks. At the end, I will dub a winner and a loser of the draft.

     

    Here we go (my picks have the ** by the number):

     

     

    Round: 1

    (1) Corporal Punishers – Aaron Rodgers QB (so right away Punishers takes the top QB off the board. In most other leagues, the first pick seems to trend between one of the top 4 or 5 RBs out there, but in a league where you can start two QBs, Rodgers going with the first pick makes sense to me. For one, he is the best Quarterback in football – be it fantasy or real-world. Secondly, he won’t be on the board at the end of round two, so if the guy with the first pick really wants Aaron Rodgers then he should take Aaron Rodgers where he can reasonably get him. Thirdly, the internal debate over which RB to take first in a PPR league can be maddening, especially given the Arian Foster hamstring / CJ2K hold-out issues. Good pick.)

    (2) Cardiac Cats – Adrian Peterson RB (Best running back in football goes at #2, though Cardiac Cats was one of three teams on autopick for the duration of the draft. I hope he got his guy, but it’s hard to go wrong with a guy that has all the tools (plus all the opportunity) to produce. I expect Peterson to get more involved in the passing game this year, which makes him hands-down my top pick at the position.)

    (3) Gang  Green – Arian Foster RB (Arian Foster was a fantasy deity last year, and I fully expect him to maintain a top-5 RB status in 2011. Take a look at Houston’s schedule for the second half of the year – fantasy playoff time – and you’ll see that whoever is at RB might win you a championship. For now, that’s Foster.)

    (4) Corys Crew – LeSean McCoy RB (This pick really caught me off guard. It makes sense to me because it’s PPR format, but I just don’t feel that ‘wow’ factor when I watch McCoy play. I consider football very intuitive, so I try to go with my gut a lot. His involvement in the passing game makes him a very attractive pick, but I just wouldn’t pull the trigger on McCoy this early in the draft where he would conceivably be my #1 RB, and depending on how the next two rounds break – he might be my only RB taken in the first three rounds. I’m an Eagles skeptic this year because I’m not sold on this ‘dream team’ stuff. Plus, the addition of Ronnie Brown helped me tempered my expectations of McCoy’s workload in 2011.)

    ** (5) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Ray Rice RB (my plan going in was to take Calvin Johnson at number 5. Good thing Rice fell – I didn’t think he would fall to me. And, as you will see later, I still landed my top-two WR’s for 2011 in Johnson and Vincent Jackson in later rounds. I think that Ray Rice is an exceptional play in a PPR league, and I feel extremely comfortable taking him as my first RB. My main concern with Rice is the workload from previous years, but he seems to get better as the season progresses rather than wearing down. I hope that trend continues.)

    (6) THE VOODOO – Jamaal Charles RB (I took Jamaal Charles last year, but I don’t want him this year. Thomas Jones is still around to steal the goal-line work, Matt Cassel is still unimpressive, and the Chiefs’ 2011 schedule is a lot tougher than the 2010 schedule.)

     (7) Impregnable Priapismics – Drew Brees QB (Drew Brees is arguably the second-best QB in the league, but I don’t know if I take him this soon unless I’m plotting a dynamite two-QB roster alignment each week. As we will see later, the Impregnable had just such a plan.)

     (8) Hot Sauce – Chris Johnson RB (CJ2K at #8 is highway robbery… Unless he is still sitting at home on the couch. I don’t know what to do with this one, and neither did the rest of the league. Hot Sauce was on autopick. I wonder if he would have picked Johnson otherwise. My guess is no, because everyone realizes the potential harm this situation could cause your chances to compete. Look at Vincent Jackson last season. If you use a first round pick on Johnson, you then have ensure you get the handcuff just in case this hold out extends into the season. And just which guy is the handcuff? Ringer or Harper? I would have to take both. That would mean 3 picks for one spot – the RB on a Titans team that might not be as good as advertised.)

    (9) Texas Thunder – Maurice Jones-Drew RB (pocket Hercules is a mini-beast with beastly beast statistical beastitude. – BUT – I would have waited on this pick, because he might have been there on the way back.  I think that Thunder was the other team besides Cats and Sauce that was on autopick. MJD is the unchallenged every-down back on the Jaguars – which is good, however, he plays on the Jaguars – which is bad.)

    (10) Team Stroup – Michael Vick QB (No way, no how would I take Vick with my first pick. Yeah, he is a fantasy bonus in our scoring system because he gets a point for every 10 rushing yards, and you can start two QBs. As I said earlier, I’m not buying the Eagles this year. I don’t know what’s going on with DeSean Jackson. Jeremy Maclin has cancer? What? Their O-line really scares me too if I’m a Vick owner because he will be running for his life – backwards – a lot more than a short man should in the NFL.)

    (11) Bonneau Rattlers – Andre Johnson WR (yes, he should have, and yes – he did. Best WR in football. I personally prefer Calvin Johnson over Andre, but that’s only because Calvin is younger and has the better QB. Yeah I said it.)

    (12) Collyn B’Jammin – Roddy White WR (Second best WR in football. The only reason I wouldn’t is because I prefer bigger receivers – 6’3” and taller. No one argue against the skills this man has though, being the NFL – leading receiver on a team with no other passing options. He is just so so SO smooth, and his chemistry with Matt Ryan insures his relevance for the foreseeable future.)

     

    Round: 2

    (13) Collyn B’Jammin – Rashard Mendenhall RB (I like Mendenhall, but I think in a PPR league the better choice would have been another tier-1 WR… or maybe a dynamic runner like McFadden. I don’t think it’s a big enough miss that Collyn is going to have buyer’s remorse after the season though.)

     (14) Bonneau Rattlers – Michael Turner RB (Way too high. He could have locked down an unstoppable WR tandem here, but chose a 2-down RB that has seen his best and fastest days.)

     (15) Team Stroup – Tom Brady QB (proven fantasy stud. The end.)

    (16) Texas Thunder – Greg Jennings WR (I would rank Nicks, Fitz, and Calvin above Jennings, but this isn’t a bad pick at all – especially for an autopick team)

     (17) Hot Sauce – Frank Gore RB (Luckily, Gore just worked out his contract dispute. Autopick didn’t totally doom Hot Sauce’s chances. He should try to trade this guy though. Gore 2011 is not Gore 2006, and San Francisco is just terrible. They are dreadful – awful. They might beat Seattle though…)

     (18) Impregnable Priapismics – Larry Fitzgerald WR (oh, the swoon-fest over the Kolb Fitzgerald dynasty is in full effect. I will temper my expectations because I’m still a little wary of Kolb. It will be better than last year though, and Fitzgerald should get around 100 catches and over 1,000 yards. Good pick, especially at 18.)

     (19) THE VOODOO – Philip Rivers QB (VOODOO seemed intent on bucking consensus opinions by taking Charles over CJ2K and again with Rivers over Manning. I like Rivers a lot, but with Calvin Johnson and Hakeem Nicks still available, I might have gone receiver here to complement the first round choice of a overrated Jamaal Charles. I saw QB as the deepest position this year, and vowed not to buy one until I had some solid RBs and WRs. VOODOO obviously had a two-QB plan as we will see later. The Manning neck injury might have swayed him to Rivers for his first QB.)

     ** (20) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Calvin Johnson WR (I celebrated when Megatron landed in my lap at #20. I’m banking on 16 games of Stafford – Johnson. I think that Johnson will be highest scoring WR in fantasy this year.)

     (21) Corys Crew – Peyton Manning QB (great deal in this league if the neck injury is a non-issue and he plays all 16 games and does his thing.)

     (22) Gang  Green – Hakeem Nicks WR (This is a very good deal. This guy is an extremely special talent. He should finish in the top three WR in fantasy scoring. I actually expect him to lead the NFL in receptions this year. I’m thinking 120-130 range. The Giants might be playing from behind a lot.)

     (23) Cardiac Cats – Steven Jackson RB (autopick. This might be Steven Jackson’s last year of fantasy relevance before round 8 of drafts. He should still contribute, and if he’s still involved in the passing game then this could turn out to be an autosteal.)

     (24) Corporal Punishers – Darren McFadden RB (man, do I love what this guy can do. This looks like a good spot to pick Run-DMC and add him to a team headlined by Rodgers. Punishers could be a tough matchup for the rest of league if McFadden stays healthy.)

     

     Round: 3

     (25) Corporal Punishers – Mike Wallace WR (Mike Wallace is developing into a solid producer, but I would have gone with a more consistent #1 option like Wayne or Jackson here. Still, Punishers is sitting pretty with Rodgers McFadden and Wallace after three rounds.)

     (26) Cardiac Cats – Peyton Hillis RB (Because Hillis came out of nowhere and wore down late last season, a lot of owners stayed their hands in drafts. Cats was on autopick, and I wonder how early Hillis would have gone had every owner been at the draft. Cats already had Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson, so essentially Hillis amounts to future trade bait… if anyone’s buying. I might – he actually caught A LOT of passes last year, even in the final weeks when he had “worn down.”)

     (27) Gang  Green – Reggie Wayne WR (probably the most consistent WR over the past few years. I think he still has a year or two left in him. Good pick. This looks like a really good team so far with Foster, Nicks and Wayne.)

     (28) Corys Crew – Matt Schaub QB (I get it, but no. Something just didn’t look right with Schaub last year in a couple of games that I saw. I couldn’t place it… Eh, call it a hunch. He will have some really bad games this year. Crew had just selected Peyton with his 2nd round pick, so this is all the more puzzling given the depth at the position.)

     ** (29) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Vincent Jackson WR (I found myself celebrating again when Jackson fell to me. I was targeting Felix Jones, but I couldn’t resist taking another big, dominant receiver who is still in his prime. This pick gave me a WR tandem of Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson. I may be biased, but that just looks intimidating on a roster.)

     (30) THE VOODOO – Ahmad Bradshaw RB (I don’t like this pick. Look at all the names that come after this one. VOODOO could have gone a lot of different ways here, and he opted for a tier-3 RB on team that is trending downward.)

     (31) Impregnable Priapismics – Tony Romo QB (Impregnable adds the forces of Tony Romo to a roster featuring Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald. He should have grabbed a RB, but Romo is a solid QB#2, considering he is the lone starter on probably the majority of fantasy teams.)

     (32) Hot Sauce – Matt Forte RB (Like Cats, Sauce finds himself sporting 3 RBs after the first 3 rounds. I think Forte is a decent catch at 32 because of his involvement in the passing game. Marion Barber’s arrival is an interesting wrinkle, and I’m not exactly sure what it might mean for Forte yet.)

     (33) Texas Thunder – DeAngelo Williams RB (elite level ball carrier stuck in a terrible offense. Two years ago the trio of MJD, Jennings, and Williams would look really strong, but for 2011 it just looks pretty good.)

     (34) Team Stroup – DeSean Jackson WR (This pick could prove to be a steal. Jackson is too unpredictable for my taste in WR’s, but you can’t argue with his talent. He will have a lot of opportunities to shine next year as well.)

     (35) Bonneau Rattlers – Ben Roethlisberger QB (Roethlisberger is an excellent QB and underrated in fantasy, but I personally wouldn’t let this guy anywhere near anything I own. The Rattlers are shaping up into a decent squad with Big Ben at QB, Andre at WR, and the sledgehammer formerly known as “the burner” at RB.)

     (36) Collyn B’Jammin – Matt Ryan QB (Collyn is double-dipping on Roddy White and Atlanta’s passing game by adding Ryan. I think this is too early to take the Atlanta QB though.)

     

     Round: 4

     (37) Collyn B’Jammin – Shonn Greene RB (Collyn is apparently a fan of powerful RB’s – with the tandem of Mendenhall and Greene. I like that RB tandem. These guys are young, strong, and fixtures in their respective offenses. Good pick.)

     (38) Bonneau Rattlers – Miles Austin WR (Bonneau makes a smart pick here by taking Austin as his 2nd WR. He has a nice duo at the position with Austin and Andre Johnson.)

     (39) Team Stroup – LeGarrette Blount RB (This pick and one just a few spots after it tie for my “steals” of this draft. Blount will be a bigger factor in the passing game in 2011, and he is going to put up top-10 stats, if not better. Stroup is looking strong with two fantasy star QBs and two young and promising skill position players.)

     (40) Texas Thunder – Dez Bryant WR (enormous talent. I am very interested in seeing what Bryant can do with a full season, free of injuries and off-field issues… I just prefer to see it on someone else’s team. For Thunder, this is a good pick to add to his roster with two solid RBs and Jennings as his first receiver.)

     (41) Hot Sauce – Antonio Gates TE (no way am I taking a TE this early. There are a lot of young guys who could break out this year. Autopick gave Sauce a TE after giving him 3 straight RB picks. Not good.)

     (42) Impregnable Priapismics – Felix Jones RB (Steal of the draft. I cursed loudly when I saw that Felix got snagged two picks before me. I had targeted him in the third round because I really believe he will put up top-5 stats for RBs in PPR this year, but I took Vincent Jackson instead. Now, the spoils of Felix Jones unleashed will go to Impregnable. What I like about Jones is his speed and pass-catching ability out of the backfield. He has looked superb this preseason, and it’s not a fluke. I live in the south and love SEC football, and I remember watching him at Arkansas and thinking to myself that he might be better than McFadden. I also love talented RB’s who average less than 15 carries per game the year prior to becoming the every-down featured back. He hasn’t been overused. This pick alone shoots this team up my list in the early stages of the draft. With Fitzgerald and two solid QBs, Jones really pushes this team into championship contender at this point… It’s still early.)

     (43) THE VOODOO – Josh Freeman QB (I don’t like this pick. With Rivers, Charles, and Bradshaw on the roster, VOODOO  probably should have gone WR here. I have learned over the years that if you go too light in either WR or RB in the first 5 rounds you wind up trying to play catch up for the rest of your draft; you miss out on a lot of opportunities at other positions later.)

     ** (44) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Knowshon Moreno RB (I was thinking QB at round 4 originally. Then  Felix almost fell to me, then he quickly fell before me. I surveyed the landscape again, and the pick before me confirmed it: everyone was going QB-heavy. I had a little time, so I decided to add a RB. Moreno gives me a receiving RB who is the featured back – I’m not worried about McGahee at all – and he says that he is in his best shape ever. As a Georgia fan and resident of the Athens area, Moreno is a favorite of mine. His athleticism is unquestioned, and I’ve been reading about Moreno running with more power and speed in training. We will see.)

     (45) Corys Crew – Dallas Clark TE (Good pick if you want a TE this early. For a team with 2 QB’s and no WR’s this struck me as an odd choice. I would have taken Brandon Marshall here.)

     (46) Gang  Green – Jahvid Best RB (I made the mistake of owning Best last year. If healthy, pick 46 is good value for a shifty, home run threat like Best. What will likely happen is that he doesn’t really do much and he ends up retiring in a year or two. Extremely talented player, but the whole concussion issue is worrisome. He isn’t going to take a chance on becoming a vegetable, so expect him to take breaks often or even sit out games in the interest of safety. You can’t predict this stuff, and for fantasy purposes I would leave him on the shelf. I hope he does well in the weeks I’m not playing Green though, because he is exciting to watch.)

     (47) Cardiac Cats – Dwayne Bowe WR (yay, autopick! Brandon Marshall is still on the board. Matt Cassel looks awful. Dwayne Bowe can’t throw it to himself.)

     (48) Corporal Punishers – Beanie Wells RB (good pick here. Beanie Wells isn’t getting much love this year. I didn’t like him at all until the Cardinals added a decent QB. The existence of a passing game in Arizona will help give Wells some room.)

     

    Round: 5

     (49) Corporal Punishers – Percy Harvin WR (Punishers adds another speedy receiver to his lineup with Harvin. It will be interesting to see how the Minnesota offense shapes up as the season goes with Berrian and Jenkins projected to start outside, with Harvin filling the slot. I think that if a slot WR was the target with this pick, then Welker would have to be the choice… BUT BRANDON MARSHALL IS STILL AVAILABLE!!!!)

     (50) Cardiac Cats – Mike Williams WR (He’s a good receiver, but we will see if he can do it again. I know the “sophomore slump” is cliché, but I can’t help thinking that when it comes to this entire offense, Blount excluded.)

     (51) Gang  Green – Joe Flacco QB (this guy is a good QB, and Green needed one on his team. I don’t see Flacco putting up numbers that will be much different from last year. The important thing is that I don’t see how Flacco could regress. This is a very good low-to-no risk pick.)

     (52) Corys Crew – Wes Welker WR (Wes Welker is no longer a secret. He should be a big part of New England’s offense again. BUT – I don’t understand this pick. Welker was the first WR taken by Crew, and Brandon Marshall was still available at the time. I would have taken a young, dominant receiver over an aging slot receiver who is spending more and more time on injury reports…)

     ** (53) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Matthew Stafford QB (and with all my harping on Brandon Marshall, I end up taking a QB who hasn’t played a full season yet. I felt the pressure of my lack of a QB, coupled with the fact that I think Stafford is capable of top-10 production, and I grabbed him when I felt like it couldn’t wait any longer. I’ll get double the points when he finds Calvin in the end zone, and I think that could happen 10 times this year.)

     (54) THE VOODOO – Jeremy Maclin WR (I am staying away from players with mystery diseases or cancer or whatever this poor guy supposedly has.)

     (55) Impregnable Priapismics – Brandon Marshall WR (imagine a top-10 WR going in the 5th round… Because that just happened here. Impregnable just got a steal. Big time. He just won in round 4 with Felix Jones, and now he adds Marshall alongside Fitzgerald at WR. I’m not looking forward to playing this team unless it’s week five – Romo, Jones, and Marshall all have a bye that week…)

     (56) Hot Sauce – Marques Colston WR (autodraft selects an injured player who might be running out of fantasy relevance. This is a good value if he gets healthy soon and is back out there catching touchdowns for the rest of the season.)

     (57) Texas Thunder – BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB (Thunder adds another RB to make a nice MJD, Williams, BJGE trio at the position. I would have taken a QB here. Thunder had yet to pick a QB, and the potential fantasy production of the remaining QBs is arguably a lot greater than that of Mr. Green-Ellis… That’s autopick for you.)

     (58) Team Stroup – Ryan Mathews RB (the world quickly forgot about Ryan Matthews after a disappointing year in 2010. I like him as a bounce-back candidate, and Stroup could have gone WR or RB here. With this pick his backfield shapes up to being pretty solid with Blount and Matthews.)

     (59) Bonneau Rattlers – Brandon Lloyd WR (Last year, Lloyd led the league in receiving – I think – and here he is, still undrafted until the end of the 5th round. Rattlers adds Lloyd to a receiving corps already featuring Andre Johnson and Miles Austin; lookin’ good.)

     (60) Collyn B’Jammin – Kevin Kolb QB (This could be a prove to be a good deal if Kolb takes flight in Arizona. Collyn has a nice QB tandem with Ryan and Kolb. The Kolb pick seems like less of a reach than the Ryan pick.)

     

     Round: 6

     (61) Collyn B’Jammin – Jason Witten TE (Collyn secures probably the most reliable TE right now with the selection of Witten. I think all TE’s are overrated, but Witten’s production could be comparable to that of the other players remaining on the board.)

     (62) Bonneau Rattlers – Santonio Holmes WR (Holmes is a clutch play-maker who is stuck in an inconsistent situation with the Jets offense. If Sanchez continues to improve his game, I expect to see Holmes benefit the most. Good value at 62 here, even though I’m not sure Rattlers needed another WR.)

     (63) Team Stroup – Jermichael Finley TE (Stroup probably should have gone WR here, but if Finley lives up to the hype it won’t matter.)

     (64) Texas Thunder – Kenny Britt WR (I am expecting big things from Britt this year, so long as he continues to progress and Hasselbeck stays healthy. Still no QB for this autopick team.)

     (65) Hot Sauce – Steve Johnson WR (I wonder how far Johnson would have fallen had all the owners been present. He seems to have garnered the ‘potential bust’ label. I don’t see why he wouldn’t continue to produce in 2011. The Bills will have to throw the ball a lot.)

     (66) Impregnable Priapismics – Mario Manningham WR (good pick. I would have taken him had he been there at 68. Impregnable is still looking strong, especially at QB and WR. He could have gone RB here, but Manningham might outscore all the RBs that were left on the board.)

     (67) THE VOODOO – Anquan Boldin WR (Boldin is still a good receiver. His second year in Baltimore should be a little better – at least more consistent. With players like Charles, Bradshaw and Maclin on the roster, VOODOO could use a little consistency. Perhaps he gets it with Boldin.)

     ** (68) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Mark Ingram RB (RB’s were going fast and Ingram looked like the one with the most potential, who gave me a bye-week fill-in for both Rice and Moreno. He has a favorable schedule as well… It’s just up to him to produce. I’m still mixed about it.)

     (69) Corys Crew – Tim Hightower RB (I don’t think Hightower gets enough credit. Fumbling issues aside, this guy is just looks like the real deal when he is running the ball. He’s not a bad receiver either. This could end up being a great deal if Hightower hangs on to the ball. This was a really good pick by Crew, as he had only one RB, and after Hightower, he ran the risk of being stuck with a Cedric Benson or Joe Addai.)

     (70) Gang  Green – Eli Manning QB (Eli Manning won a Superbowl. Sure, he’s inconsistent, but this is a good pick for Green. After six rounds he had 2 solid QB’s, 2 solid WR’s and Arian Foster. If Jahvid Best proves me wrong this will be a good team.)

     (71) Cardiac Cats – Austin Collie WR (Autodraft strikes again. See Best and my reluctance to take a chance on “could-be-great” players with concussion histories.

     (72) Corporal Punishers – Sam Bradford QB (Punishers continues to be one of the major players in the draft with this selection. Bradford is a good QB. If he continues to improve he will soon be a great QB. As long as Bradford doesn’t regress, this pick is in the least a great back-up for Rodgers.)

     

    Round: 7

     (73) Corporal Punishers – A.J. Green WR (It might have been a little early to take a rookie WR who will play with a rookie QB on a team that won’t be able to run the ball, but you have to take players like Green when you want them. Punishers wanted him at 73. I wish Green was still at Georgia, but I sure don’t blame him for leaving. He is going to have some huge games this year. The only problem is knowing when those games will come.)

     (74) Cardiac Cats – Jonathan Stewart RB (Autopick strikes again.)

     (75) Gang  Green – Jay Cutler QB (Green seems to be a little overzealous with 3 QB picks in 3 consecutive rounds, but I think Cutler is a good value pick here. Jay Cutler has the talent to be the best QB in the NFL. If the intangibles improve, I think Cutler could put up some great numbers. In fact, I am kind of banking on a bounce-back year from him. He doesn’t have Brandon Marshall anymore, but with a full season in the Martz offense under his belt we should see some improvement right away in 2011.)

     (76) Corys Crew – Daniel Thomas RB (Daniel Thomas was the only bright spot for Kansas State during his tenure there. The Dolphins seem intent on starting Reggie Bush, so it just depends on how long the coaches plan on trying to make Bush work as an every down back before Thomas gets the opportunity to carry the ball. I would have gone with one of the few remaining starters before Thomas, but Crew could afford this risk as his backfield was already set with McCoy and Hightower.)

     ** (77) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Vernon Davis TE (this was very much an impulsive pick. I didn’t want Vernon Davis, but when I looked at all the options out there I felt that this would be a good investment. He is an extremely talented player, and the team will need to use him often if they want to compete. I’m banking on the 49ers figuring something out at the QB position. I hope I don’t regret this pick.)

     (78) THE VOODOO – Santana Moss WR (not a bad pick by VOODOO here. Moss continues to produce, even despite his lack of size and increasing age.)

     (79) Impregnable Priapismics – Owen Daniels TE (This guy just kept winning with Daniels in the 7th round. As much as I dislike the TE position in fantasy, I have to acknowledge that Daniels is one of the better choices out there. Impregnable still needed to fill one of his RB spots, but this was his first TE selection. This team looks pretty good.)

     (80) Hot Sauce – Sidney Rice WR (autopick strikes again.)

     (81) Texas Thunder – Cedric Benson RB (autopick strikes again.)

     (82) Team Stroup – Pierre Garcon WR (Stroup is solid at RB and QB, so he went WR here. I think Garcon is a good pick here. The only downside with Garcon is consistency. This was a good pick for Stroup here because he was addressing a need with the best available at the position.)

     (83) Bonneau Rattlers – Ryan Grant RB (will Grant bounce back this year? Rattlers hopes so. There were only about 4 starting RB’s left at this point, and it’s pretty much a crapshoot as far as which one would be worth owning. Rattler’s needed a second RB, and I think Grant was a decent choice.)

     (84) Collyn B’Jammin – Steelers D/ST D/ST (Defenses and kickers should be drafted last. The Steelers D/ST still might be the best in the league, but the defense is getting old.)

     

     Round: 8

     (85) Collyn B’Jammin – Robert Meachem WR (I like Meachem this year, and Collyn needed another WR. With or without Colston, I expect to see more Meachem – Brees hookups in 2011.)

     (86) Bonneau Rattlers – Matt Cassel QB (Rattlers could have snatched up another RB, but chose to go with a QB that isn’t relevant.)

     (87) Team Stroup – Marshawn Lynch RB (Seattle looks like a mess. Lynch looked awesome on that game-sealing run at the end of the game against the Saints last year, but that was it. I don’t know if it’s Lynch or the O-line, but I would have passed on him here and grabbed either Jackson, Addai, or a top-end handcuff if I really wanted a RB.)

     (88) Texas Thunder – Fred Jackson RB (autopick gives Thunder an underrated RB in Jackson. I think we’ve seen all that Spiller has to offer. The RB to own in Buffalo is Jackson.)

     (89) Hot Sauce – James Starks RB (autopick strikes again.)

     (90) Impregnable Priapismics – Joseph Addai RB (Impregnable’s opportunistic approach and patience pay off late with Addai. I really wouldn’t want him on my team, but for a team in need of a RB, this is a pretty good pick in the 8th round. We all know he’s in no danger of losing his job to Donald Brown.)

     (91) THE VOODOO – Packers D/ST D/ST (Defenses… too early.)

     ** (92) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Plaxico Burress WR (I needed a 3rd receiver and I figured he was the best one available. The addition of Burress completes my trio of giant receivers. Sure, he’s old and hasn’t played in a while, but I liked what I saw in the 3-catch 60+ yards and a TD preseason performance.)

     (93) Corys Crew – Jets D/ST D/ST (wasting picks on Defenses.)

     (94) Gang  Green – Chad Ochocinco WR (I am afraid that I really think Ocho is going to be a bust in New England. He is on the downward trend in his career. Considering the fact that Green already has Wayne and Nicks, it couldn’t hurt to take a flier on Chad in the 8th round.)

     (95) Cardiac Cats – Marcedes Lewis TE (autopick strikes again. Better TEs still on the board.)

     (96) Corporal Punishers – C.J. Spiller RB (Punishers was having a pretty good draft, so perhaps he felt like taking a chance on Spiller. The reward could be nice considering the price. I fear he just wasted an 8th round pick.) 

     

     Round: 9

     (97) Corporal Punishers – Michael Bush RB (Punishers starts the 9th with a very smart pick – Michael Bush. I was planning to take him in a later round, but Punishers beat me to it. Make no mistake about this RB – he would start on a lot of other rosters and produce for fantasy owners. If McFadden misses a few games this year, Punishers will get his money’s worth.)

     (98) Cardiac Cats – Pierre Thomas RB (Pierre Thomas is still a viable RB in fantasy, even despite the presence of Mark Ingram. Too bad Cats already had about eleven running backs and no QB’s on his roster. Autopick fail.)

     (99) Gang  Green – Julio Jones WR (what’s not to like about Julio Jones? Not a bad choice for a 4th WR.)

     (100) Corys Crew – Ryan Torain RB (Ugh. Crew just spent 2 picks in the past 3 rounds on Washington RB’s. His only WR at this point was Welker.)

     ** (101) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Kyle Orton QB (I needed another QB, and Orton was the best candidate to throw for 3,500 yards out of the remainder. I don’t love this pick, but I see Denver playing from behind a lot, and with Lloyd, Thomas, Royal, Decker and Moreno to throw to, he has the opportunity to rack up yards. Orton just looks really terrible every now and then. I waited too long to take a backup QB.)

     (102) THE VOODOO – Steve Smith WR (I can’t remember which Steve Smith this was… Either way, it seems like boom or bust.)

     (103) Impregnable Priapismics – Danny Amendola WR (I really liked the team Impregnable had put together until this pick. This isn’t bad if you’re hoping for a guy who will get you a steady 8 points per game. There are just so many more playmakers left on the board. He had set himself up pretty nicely up until this pick, and he could have really separated himself from the pack with a riskier pick. I get it though…)

     (104) Hot Sauce – Mike Tolbert RB (autopick fail.)

     (105) Texas Thunder – Johnny Knox WR (There’s only one Chicago WR I think is worth owning. I’ll explain in a minute…)

     (106) Team Stroup – Reggie Bush RB (nice value here, given the PPR scoring system. I don’t think Reggie Bush is going to suddenly become a true RB in Miami, but he still has some value because the team is giving him the opportunity, and he can make a difference catching the ball out of the backfield.)

     (107) Bonneau Rattlers – Kellen Winslow TE (with the top-tier TEs taken, I think it’s time to wait for the younger, more promising guys like Pettigrew, Gresham, Graham, Cook, Davis… There were plenty out there, and Rattlers still could have benefitted from another RB.)

     (108) Collyn B’Jammin – Lee Evans WR (Will Evans produce with Baltimore? Collyn was willing to find out, and thought it worth a 9th round pick. Evans could conceivably have some big games in 2011.)

     

     Round: 10

     (109) Collyn B’Jammin – Willis McGahee RB (continuing his team’s trend of goal-line power backs and speedy receivers, Collyn followed up the selection of Lee Evans with Willis McGahee. I think the 10th round might be a little early, but if Moreno goes down this becomes a steal.)

     (110) Bonneau Rattlers – Eagles D/ST D/ST (This Defense is overrated. The special teams has some big-play potential, but the LB corps in Philly is marginal at best. This team will struggle against the run all year.)

     (111) Team Stroup – Michael Crabtree WR (This guy could be so good. Apparently Stroup is counting on it. Too bad he has to depend on A- getting healthy and then B- two former run-option QB’s from non-BCS conferences to get him the ball. Think if he was in New England – man, that would be awesome…)

     (112) Texas Thunder – Malcom Floyd WR (autopick strikes again. I guess this isn’t a bad pick… I don’t know. I don’t want this guy.)

     (113) Hot Sauce – Mike Thomas WR (Sauce might have lucked out with this autopick. I passed over Thomas because of his size and the QB situation in Jacksonville, but the reality is that this guy is pretty talented. Might end up being a very nice pick when it’s all said and done.)

     (114) Impregnable Priapismics – Jerome Harrison RB (Impregnable is getting… pregnable with picks like this.)

     (115) THE VOODOO – LaDainian Tomlinson RB (solid pick at 115; get a former pro-bowler with some juice still left in the tank that plays for a running team behind a solid O-line. He is also a proven receiver out of the backfield. Good choice here by VOODOO.)

     ** (116) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Earl Bennett WR (I might be crazy, but I see Earl Bennett having an Isaac Bruce year ala the “greatest show on turf” St. Louis teams that Martz had. Bennett is the most consistent receiver on the team, and the addition of Roy Williams will only hurt Johnny Knox. Bennett is the best route runner of the bunch, and can own the middle of the field. I see him getting 5-10 targets a game from his former college teammate as he dominates the middle of the field, running precise crossing routes. The coaching staff also pledged to get him more involved in 2011, and if the 6-catch, 89 yard preseason performance was any indication, they might be telling the truth.)

     (117) Corys Crew – Lance Moore WR (Lance Moore is a pretty good receiver who is overshadowed by the talent around him. Not a bad value pick here at 117.)

     (118) Gang  Green – Greg Olsen TE (the new O-coordinator in Carolina loves to use TE’s, and the lack of good QB’s might lead to even more TE targets. Olsen is also quite talented, so this is a good pick for a team that had no one at the position yet.)

     (119) Cardiac Cats – Brandon Jacobs RB (autopick! Danny Ware looks like he should be the RB in NY, but that’s just me.)

     (120) Corporal Punishers – Jacoby Ford WR (I don’t get the hype over this guy. I would plant my flag on Heyward-Bey in 2011, if I HAD to pick a Raiders WR.)

     

     Round: 11

     (121) Corporal Punishers – Ryan Fitzpatrick QB (best pick of the round. Not because I think he’s a great QB, but because I think he will get plenty of stats to make fantasy owners happy when their starting QB is on a bye or gets hurt. I mean, what are the Bills going to do – run the ball? Exactly. Punishers could have gone TE here, but there were still plenty on the board.)

     (122) Cardiac Cats – Jordy Nelson WR (Worst pick. Last time I checked, he’s still a #4 WR.)

     (123) Gang  Green – Braylon Edwards WR

     (124) Corys Crew – Donald Driver WR

     ** (125) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Greg Little WR

     (126) THE VOODOO – Jimmy Graham TE

     (127) Impregnable Priapismics – Davone Bess WR

     (128) Hot Sauce – Roy Williams WR

     (129) Texas Thunder – Zach Miller TE

     (130) Team Stroup – Mark Sanchez QB

     (131) Bonneau Rattlers – Danny Woodhead RB

     (132) Collyn B’Jammin – Tony Gonzalez TE

     

     Round: 12

     (133) Collyn B’Jammin – Ben Tate RB (Best pick. I still think Foster is the better player, but if Foster is hurt, Tate will still produce some great fantasy numbers. Foster has a nagging hammy issue, and the potential value for a starting RB in Houston is great at pick 133.)

     (134) Bonneau Rattlers – Nate Kaeding K (worst pick. A kicker in round 12.)

     (135) Team Stroup – Hines Ward WR

     (136) Texas Thunder – David Garrard QB

     (137) Hot Sauce – Ravens D/ST D/ST

     (138) Impregnable Priapismics – Darren Sproles RB

     (139) THE VOODOO – Donovan McNabb QB

     ** (140) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Brandon Pettigrew TE

     (141) Corys Crew – Ronnie Brown RB

     (142) Gang  Green – Montario Hardesty RB

     (143) Cardiac Cats – James Jones WR

     (144) Corporal Punishers – Rob Gronkowski TE

     

     Round: 13

     (145) Corporal Punishers – Justin Forsett RB (tied for worst pick. Might as well take a kicker.)

     (146) Cardiac Cats – Ricky Williams RB

     (147) Gang  Green – Jerome Simpson WR

     (148) Corys Crew – Jacquizz Rodgers RB

     ** (149) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Chad Henne QB

     (150) THE VOODOO – Rashad Jennings RB

     (151) Impregnable Priapismics – Colt McCoy QB

     (152) Hot Sauce – Jason Campbell QB

     (153) Texas Thunder – Thomas Jones RB (best pick. Great value for the guy who will still score the 3 touchdowns KC will have this year.)

     (154) Team Stroup – Patriots D/ST D/ST

     (155) Bonneau Rattlers – Roy Helu RB

     (156) Collyn B’Jammin – Neil Rackers K (tied for worst pick. Might as well take a bad backup RB on a bad team.)

     

     Round: 14

     (157) Collyn B’Jammin – Mike Sims-Walker WR (This is the worst pick of the round that isn’t a kicker. I don’t know what happened to Sims-Walker, but he has fallen off in a big way. Maybe he peaked too soon. It appears that he sits behind marginal receivers like Amendola, Gibson and Avery on the Rams depth chart.)

     (158) Bonneau Rattlers – Mike Williams WR

     (159) Team Stroup – Chris Cooley TE

     (160) Texas Thunder – Bears D/ST D/ST

     (161) Hot Sauce – Josh Brown K

     (162) Impregnable Priapismics – Falcons D/ST D/ST

     (163) THE VOODOO – Jamie Harper RB (best pick. I wanted this one badly, and I couldn’t believe it when VOODOO snatched him from my grasp. Harper is better than Ringer. He’ll get stats if Johnson stays off the field.)

     ** (164) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Jacoby Jones WR

     (165) Corys Crew – Eddie Royal WR

     (166) Gang  Green – Derrick Ward RB

     (167) Cardiac Cats – Saints D/ST D/ST

     (168) Corporal Punishers – Giants D/ST D/ST

     

     Round: 15

     (169) Corporal Punishers – Jared Cook TE (best pick. Should be a top-10 TE at the end of the year.)

     (170) Cardiac Cats – Deion Branch WR

     (171) Gang  Green – Chargers D/ST D/ST

     (172) Corys Crew – Kevin Walter WR

     ** (173) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Cadillac Williams RB

     (174) THE VOODOO – Alex Henery K

     (175) Impregnable Priapismics – Emmanuel Sanders WR

     (176) Hot Sauce – Rob Bironas K

     (177) Texas Thunder – Stephen Gostkowski K

     (178) Team Stroup – Tarvaris Jackson QB (worst pick. This needs no explanation.)

     (179) Bonneau Rattlers – Garrett Hartley K

     (180) Collyn B’Jammin – Antonio Brown WR

     

     Round: 16 (Ugh, all of these picks suck.)

     (181) Collyn B’Jammin – Mason Crosby K

     (182) Bonneau Rattlers – Matt Hasselbeck QB

     (183) Team Stroup – Donald Brown RB

     (184) Texas Thunder – Billy Cundiff K

     (185) Hot Sauce – Nick Folk K

     (186) Impregnable Priapismics – John Beck QB

     (187) THE VOODOO – Arrelious Benn WR

     ** (188) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Dan Carpenter K

     (189) Corys Crew – Matt Prater K

     (190) Gang  Green – Chiefs D/ST D/ST

     (191) Cardiac Cats – Adam Vinatieri K

     (192) Corporal Punishers – Matt Bryant K

     

     Round: 17

     (193) Corporal Punishers – Jordan Shipley WR

     (194) Cardiac Cats – Alex Smith QB (worst pick. Not an NFL QB. That has been proven.)

     (195) Gang  Green – Sebastian Janikowski K

     (196) Corys Crew – Kendall Hunter RB

     ** (197) Danse Macabre Coup De Grace – Browns D/ST D/ST

     (198) THE VOODOO – Dustin Keller TE

     (199) Impregnable Priapismics – Jay Feely K

     (200) Hot Sauce – Derrick Mason WR

     (201) Texas Thunder – Anthony Dixon RB

     (202) Team Stroup – Ryan Longwell K

     (203) Bonneau Rattlers – Lions D/ST D/ST

     (204) Collyn B’Jammin – Eric Decker WR (best pick. I think this guy could put up 800 yards this season. That would be phenomenal value at pick 204.)

     

     

    Winners:

     

    Gang Green: There were some questionable picks like Best and the 3 consecutive QBs, but overall the defending champ is going to contend again in 2011. The receiving corps is the strength, anchored by names like Wayne, Nicks, Ochocinco and Edwards. RB lacks depth, but Foster and Best could be big contributors if healthy.

     

    Impregnable Priapismics: The Impregnable train de-railed in the later rounds, but started off strong enough to earn a spot at the winners table. With Brees and Romo this team sports one of the better QB duos in the league without sacrificing too much at other positions; this WR trio will push Green for the best in the league with Fitzgerald, Marshall and Manningham.

     

    Collyn B’Jammin: This team came out pretty good in the end. The powerful RBs who will definitely get goal-line carries and the speedy receivers make for a dangerous, unpredictable team. It was really the mid-round picks of Lee Evans, McGahee, and Ben Tate that won me over.

     

    Loser:

     

    Hot Sauce: Hopefully he can trade one of those RB’s for a QB and some WR help.

     

    The other two autopick teams didn’t fare too terribly. Despite each team having 20 RB’s and 5 K’s they still have the trade bait to make their team resemble something competitive.

     

    I feel pretty good about my draft, though I had hoped for more RB depth. It’s going to be an interesting year.

     

    Erich F.

     

     
  • Fantasy Football Draft Day Rankings

    Fantasy Football Draft Day Rankings

    Fantasy Football, Fantasy Musings August 16, 2011 5:58 pm 4 comments

    If you’re like me, your draft is approaching.  Maybe you have two or three coming up. I am getting rapidly close to double digits, but that’s neither here nor there.  The important part is that it’s about time for that pinnacle of fantasy football bliss when all of your preparation pays off and you take the first step toward the trophy.

    You might be celebrating your holiday with some hot wings, beer, and a man cave. Others may be getting out on the town to draft at the local pub or watering hole. A word of advice: whatever you do, wherever you go, just know that computers don’t like beer.  I speak from personal draft day experience.

    But enough about my draft day party fouls. Let’s talk rankings.  (more…)

     
  • Know the Rules

    Know the Rules

    Fantasy Football August 13, 2011 4:25 pm no comments

    The format of Elite Fantasy Players football leagues may be different that other leagues you play in. All rules can be found here.  As noted by Kevin “Money” Mechtley, in his Ode to Draft Day, “every decision you make should be guided by your league’s rules.” I will go through a few important rules and discuss how your each should affect your draft day strategy.

    Scoring

    The most important non-standard scoring rule is points-per-reception (PPR). This obviously adds value to WRs over other positions. But more importantly it can significantly change the value of a RB compared to ESPN standard scoring. Receiving RBs get a huge boost. For example, in ESPN standard scoring, LeSean McCoy was the 7th highest scoring RB in 2010, but 2nd in the EFP scoring system—he will likely be undervalued if your league is dominated by ESPN free-league players. Also, think twice before you draft Michael Turner in the 2nd round.

    Lesean McCoy is a fantasy stud who will be undervalued to someone who doesn't know the rules. Image by Rant Sports

    Punt and kick returners have some value. EFP scoring rewards returners with 1 point for every 25 KR yards or 10 PR yards, and 6 points for a TD. Although it doesn’t add a significant amount value to a returner, an extra 2-3 point a week from your receiver is enough to bump him up several rounds in the draft, and can turn Danny Amendola into an excellent cheap third WR.

    Passing TDs are worth 6 points. Not a significant change, but adds some value to QBs who do not rush relative to those who do rush, while raising the value of all QBs relative to other positions.

     

    Rosters

    The EFP fantasy football roster is

    QB       RB        RB        WR      WR      WR      TE        OP       K          D/ST,

    where the OP position allows for ANY offensive player.

    The most important thing to know is how the different positions are valued relative to each-other given that we play 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE. Below you can see the chart of the average points above the replacement player starting players at each position (neglecting the OP position)

    QB (12) RB (24) WR (36) TE (12) K (12) D/ST (12)
    Points above replacement 42 57 51 22 12 36

     

    The top 24 RBs scored on average in 2010, 57 points above replacement, the highest of any the positions. Although QBs score the most fantasy points, they do not fare well when compared against replacement. This is somewhat balanced by the OP position which many 2nd QBs will occupy. TE’s are the catchers of fantasy football, and provide little value on draft day compared to what is free after week 1.

    Featured Image by Rant Sports

     
  • Who’s Number One?

    Who’s Number One?

    Fantasy Football August 9, 2011 8:27 am 13 comments

    Some things in life are simple and easy. Making a PB & J sandwich, cakewalks, and defeating your child in an arm-wrestling match are a few examples that come to mind quickly. Ranking stuff can be pretty easy at times, too. For instance, what’s the most dangerous fish in the ocean? If you didn’t say ‘Great white shark’, you’re off your rocker. How ’bout this dandy:  Hardest substance known to man? You don’t have to rack your brain to know that that would be the diamond. Does fantasy football fall under this category?

    Going into the past couple seasons has been easy. It was simple. If you had the first pick in 2010 you probably took Chris Johnson. In ’09 the top spot almost undoubtedly went to Adrian Peterson. 2008′s top pick was LT. This year won’t be nearly that easy.

    You could make a case for either of the last two years’ studs to be the first pick. Some might even throw Arian Foster‘s name into that hat as well. These three rushers all look like viable candidates for that hallowed honor. Few projections seem to agree with each other.  Some say AP is your undisputed #1 player. Some believe CJ2K will build on his 2009 campaign and reclaim his thrown atop the rushing leader-boards. Others think that there is no reason Foster shouldn’t repeat his monstrous breakout campaign. They all have valid points. But if I have the top pick, you better believe that none of those names will be called first.

    No sir. I’m going to be putting all my faith into Michael Vick.

    This year's best player. Period

    Controversial as his past may be, that should not keep you from putting him on your roster. You don’t have to like the guy in real life to keep him on your team. I’ll bet Jim Sorgi is one heck of a guy sans pads, but you won’t see him manning the QB slot on anyone’s fantasy team. The same applies conversely. If you are a die-hard republican and Drew Brees is a bleeding heart liberal, that wont matter when it comes time to sling the pigskin. He’ll still put up great numbers. And you’ll still be stuck being a republican.

    Face it. This cat can ball. Technically he played in 12 games total but he was knocked out of one of those games in the first quarter so it’s safe to remove that game from his totals. In 11 games (that he completed) he threw for just under 3,000 yards, 21 TD with only 6 interceptions. You extrapolate that over a 16 game season, you’re looking at roughly 4,250 yards passing, 30 TD and about 9 picks. Ya know Aaron Rodger‘s numbers? How about 28 TD and 11 INT. 2 less touchdowns passing than Vick, yet 2 more interceptions. That’s good for a QB rating of almost 100.

    Oh yeah, and did I forget to mention that he’s quite decent in regard to running the football, as well? Don’t believe me? Believe this; he ran for 676 yards and 9 touchdowns in those same 11 games. Had he played all 16 games at that pace, he would’ve finished a mere 17 yards short of a grand-983 yards and about 13 six-pointers. Just to put that into perspective for you, the yards alone would have made him the 18th best Running Back. Touchdowns? 13 would have put him second only to Foster himself. That is ridiculous.

    Basically, this man among boys is a top 3 QB and a top 10 RB rolled up into one smooth, left-handed, scramblin’, slingin’ machine.

    He has a great set of weapons. DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek all return and welcome Ronnie Brown into the fold. In fact, the case could easily be made that he is surrounded by much more talent than last year’s squad. Coach Andy Reid has had a whole season to configure the Philadelphia playbook to better suit Vick’s unique skill-set. And Vick goes into this season starting job securely in hand, unlike last season where he spent most of the off season taking snaps with the second squad and wildcat packages. So why wouldn’t he be able to match last year’s numbers?

    Now, there is one potential bugaboo that curtails this dynamic play caller. The injury factor. People could try to dispute his incredibility by discounting the stats given to you above  pointing out that he was, in fact, out of competition for 5 games due to injury and that it isn’t exactly fair to look at the numbers he put up and stretch them out over 16 games rather than the 11 he actually finished. And they’d be right, to an extent. But there is no reason to believe that he would’ve played basically 11 great games yet be incompetent  the other 5.

    Injuries are just part of the game. Everyone that plays fantasy know this sad statement to be true. One injury can single-handedly ruin your season. At the same time, you can’t logically predict when someone will be injured. To base your pick off that assumption will surely leave you dissatisfied with your decision.

    If you are unsure about the number of hits Slick Vick will suffer, then I would suggest you spend a middle round pick on a back-up QB. Someone stable, yet not incredibly glamorous. Your best bet would be to wait until you get Vick and then both RB’s and two WR’s. That would be a great time to grab someone. Guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, and Matt Ryan will most likely be there in the 6th round. If you’re lucky, Matt Schaub may even be there. This way, in case the skeptics are proven correct, you’ll have a reliable back-up at Quarterback.

    You still wanna take a high profile Running Back first overall? AP’s reliability calling your name? Johnson’s 2,000 yard potential entice you? Foster’s giant year lead you to pick him?

    Good luck to you. More Vick for me.

     
  • Ode to Draft Day

    Ode to Draft Day

    Fantasy Football, Fantasy Musings August 1, 2011 11:00 am 6 comments

    It is finally time. The lockout is over. The CBA is nearly in place. I think someone even asked about Brett Favre the other day.

    Yep, we’re back!

    Boring talk of excluded defined gross revenue has transitioned into talk of restricted free agents. Talk of decertification is now talk of defense. No more banter between lawyers about the National Labor Relations Board, for N.L.R.B. is now N.F. freaking L. For sports law nerds like myself, this offseason has been a great lesson in labor law and negotiation. For most, it has been a great lesson in patience.

    But none of it matters now. Because now it is time for football.

    And FANTASY football.

    If you’re anything like me, this time of year is kind of like Christmas (or, you know, applicable substitute holiday). Not to mention this abbreviated and plum crazy free agency period has made this season even the merrier! So do me a favor and deck your (DeAngelo) Halls with (Dwayne) Bowes of (Tamba) Hali and let’s get this party started!

    Of course all this celebratory reverie brings with it great responsibility.

    Your fantasy drafts are rapidly approaching whether you are prepared for them or not. Because you are taking the time to read this, your league domination starts right now. I am here to provide some assistance in your endeavors.

    Disclaimer: I am not a fantasy genius, wizard, fortune-teller, or psychic. In fact, I’m not even paid to write these words. What I can do is provide you with some basic words of advice to assist you in attaining your own fantasy success. Ultimately, you are the one that must make the decision of whether to sit Felix Jones in favor of Daniel Thomas even though Thomas is playing a top 5 Defense.

    But we’ll get to those discussions later. For now, it’s time to talk a holiday in its own right… Draft Day!

    What follows is a list of Fantasy Draft Rules you absolutely must abide by on Draft Day. You will not find a recommendation of a specific “winning strategy” that you must employ. That’s silly. There are more winning fantasy football strategies than there are audible calls in Peyton’s lexicon [read: a lot]. Instead, you will find recommendations for draft preparation, pointers about under and overvaluing players, and basic rules that will put you in the best position to shine on Draft Day. So here you go, friends. Read away and get ready for some freaking football!

    1. Most important of all, preparation separates winners from losers on Draft Day. The prepared manager will also enjoy the Draft Day experience much more than the unprepared manager. Fantasy drafts are supposed to be equal parts celebration of football hysteria and bona fide smack-talk. If you are unprepared, you run the risk of making a hasty or shortsighted decision that may affect the rest of your draft. It may also leave you in a position to try to defend a crappy draft move to your buddies. Avoid these situations by strategizing far before Draft Day. Make your own player rankings based on the rules of your league. Practice with mock drafts so that you can be prepared to call your own audibles of your pre-draft strategy with confidence.

       

    2. Know your league rules. Every decision you make should be guided by your league’s rules. For instance, if passing touchdowns are worth the same as rushing touchdowns, a good QB should be higher on your list than it otherwise would be. Is it a PPR league? An auction draft? Familiarize yourself with the rules and try to find mock drafts that mirror your league’s draft.

       

    3. Be aware that everyone has the same fantasy football magazine, iPhone application, website, and twitter account (shameless plug: @fantasyfootbaii) that you have. You will separate yourself from chalk ranking drafters by adapting your own player rankings to your league and recognizing value and sleeper picks.

       

    4. Be prepared to go off script. Even if your pre-draft rankings are holding course, do not overvalue a guy in the 3rd round that you could get in the 4th. Or that you could get a suitable substitute for in the 7th. Mock drafts will help you figure out where players are being drafted so that you can smell the stench of an overvalued pick before you select him.

       

    1. Your first 4 rounds of picks are important, but not the most important. These first four guys are the ones that will get you to the playoffs. However, keep in mind that rounds 5-15 are even more important. These are the guys that will get you the freaking trophy. Too often people get down to the 8th or 9th round and then go on auto-draft, ending up with two backup quarterbacks and an injured 13-year veteran has-been wide receiver. These rounds are where you find the highest reward for the lowest risk. Do not take them lightly!

       

    2. Don’t overvalue the big and most oft-discussed offseason free agency or trade moves. None of the offseason moves have been very exciting from a fantasy perspective (as of this writing). The same goes for the big name rookies. Certainly do not overlook any of these players, but every year there is a tendency to overvalue and overdraft the bright and shiny new fantasy toys. It’s also noteworthy that many free agent players (e.g., Ochocinco, Plaxico) have less tread on their tires than their name conveys.

       

    3. As a corollary to #6, don’t overlook what a free agency or trade move may do to other players. The biggest example of this season will be Larry Fitzgerald’s value, which skyrockets with an adequate arm throwing the ball anywhere near him. Don’t just think about the guy that is moved. Think about those around him that are affected by that move.

       

    4. Don’t give any player the hometown discount. It doesn’t matter if the guy plays for your favorite team or not. Also doesn’t matter if the guy is hated by PETA, was convicted of a DUI, talks smack on the Commissioner, or poses in GQ. Go out there and pick the best player regardless of the name. Do not draft or not draft a guy because of how much he is liked or disliked.

       

    5. For the love of all that is holy among fantasy gods, do not draft a Defense or Kicker until the final two rounds. By this point, every fantasy football manager should know this. However, I bet house money that you will see some moron reach on Stephen Gostkowski or the Packers defense in the 11th round. Please, please do not be “that guy” (but feel free to make fun of that guy).

       

    6. Don’t be a slave to the conglomerates! Yes, ESPN, Fox, CBS, NFL, Yahoo, and tons of other websites employ (and actually pay!) “experts” to tell you what players will succeed week to week. Listen to them, but do your own research. You’ll be surprised how often you are right compared to what the “experts” will tell you.

       

    7. No backups, no problem! Contrary to what you see in all of the auto-draft systems, a backup QB is not necessary on Draft Day. This comes with one notable exception, and that is if you draft Michael Vick. You should draft a late round backup for Vick because of his style of play, but do not need to use up a valuable roster spot under any other circumstances. The same goes for tight end, kicker, and defense. One will suffice on Draft Day.

       

    8. Draft as many running backs and wide receivers as your league will allow. Once you get your main roster spots filled, take fliers on RBs and WRs that have some high risk but high possible returns. All you have to do is hit on 2 or 3 of your 10 picks and you’ll be way ahead of your league mates that are drafting back-up QBs and silly handcuffs.

       

    9. Assess your risk tolerance prior to Draft Day. A good draft gives you a healthy mix of home run hitters and consistent performers. However, if your risk tolerance is more on the conservative side, look for wide receivers that get the most targets and receptions (See: Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker). Similarly, look for running backs that get the most carries (Michael Turner, Arian Foster, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson). Conversely, the “home run” hitters (aka “boom or bust” players) are those that average the most 20+ yard receptions or deep threat targets (See: Mike Wallace, Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, DeSean Jackson). A healthy mix is probably preferable, but recognize your tolerance prior to Draft Day.

       

    10. Don’t be afraid of RB by committee. The reality of the new age of NFL rushing is this committee/platoon/ANNOYING approach. I used to be among those that wouldn’t touch a committee running back. Now that so many teams are employing this approach, you have no choice but to find the Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert, BJGE (Law Firm) type of back and start the heck out of them. Ideally, you are able to make one of these types of backs your 2nd RB or Flex, but don’t be wary of such a player in the middle rounds.

       

    11. Give yourself an edge on Draft Day through your research. Most of your fellow league mates are not looking at 2008-2010 carries, targets, and receptions. Most of them are not looking to see who is coming off of injury or is approaching a contract year. Most only remember last year’s team and the 2010 players who went beast against them (e.g., Michael Vick, Arian Foster, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd). Most will draft based on what they know, which is far less than you know. Recognize this fact and exploit it on Draft Day.

       

    12. Don’t worry about the bye week ever. Don’t even put it on your Draft Day prep sheets. Too often someone drafts a player over another due to a bye week and that player isn’t even on his roster anymore come that week. Just not worth the extra detail on Draft Day.

       

    13. Remember that serviceable Quarterbacks are available in the 5th through 8th rounds. If a player falls to you that you did not expect to be there, don’t be afraid to take him in lieu of a Quarterback. Most will recommend to you that you do anything you can to get one of the top tier guys (e.g., Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers). I agree that it is advisable to get one of these guys, but if you’re faced with a Rivers or Mike Wallace decision in the 3rd round, don’t be afraid to go after your guy. There will always be a Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, or Josh Freeman waiting for you a couple rounds later.

       

    14. Don’t succumb to the “run of players at that position” game. You all know what I’m talking about. Allow me to set the scene: No tight ends have been chosen rounds 1-4 and then one person grabs Gates. Next thing you know, 5 tight ends come off the board over the next 7 picks. Don’t be the guy that ends up on the late end of that train.

       

    15. Tight ends other than Gates are all pretty close to the same. More than likely, Gates will be the first tight end off the board, and it will be early. He may be worth a 4th round pick in most league formats, and if he’s your guy, go for it. However, if you don’t get Gates, don’t worry about a tight end until the middle-late rounds. Most remaining tight ends are pretty close to the same in production.

       

    16. Have fun! Especially if you’re winning, which you definitely should be if you put in the time to prepare. Also know that I am in full support of as much smack-talk as your league mates will endure before dropping keyboards and going at it. Even then, I would inform them that if they do choose to throw bones, they will probably lose at that too. And even if you end up with a black eye, you can still go to bed that night knowing you’re better than your assailant at the most important life skill of all, fantasy football. Now get after it!

     

    Images by xoque and NYCMarines